The wide streets of Kigali are clean and in good condition, traffic flows smoothly. Overall, the city appears very well-kept, modern, and tidy. There is no visible poverty in the city centre, no beggars, not even the small roadside stalls that are typical of many large East African cities. The modern glass facades of the high-rise buildings gleam in the sun.
Katrin Voss directs the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation’s East Africa Office in Dar es Salaam.
This is precisely the positive image that the regime wants to present to the international press — a press that is currently focusing on the small country, for on 15 July, Rwanda held elections and, according to official reports, re-elected its president, Paul Kagame.
Nothing about the third re-election of the president, who has been in power since 2000, came as a surprise — not even the over 99 percent of votes counted in his favour. Despite his autocratic approach to leadership, Kagame enjoys relatively broad support among the population, for he presents himself as a strong leader guiding the Rwandan nation towards a modern and peaceful future. Many Rwandans have stressed in conversations that the country needs a strong leader to avoid falling back into the past — the trauma of the 1994 genocide is deeply etched into the collective memory. Kagame’s rule is based on the fear of a relapse into this dark period.
Umuganda Day is a good example of his authoritarian style: on the last Saturday of every month, all residents have to go outside between 08:00 and 11:00 to clean the streets. This collective cleaning task can only be avoided with a special permit, and the entire country comes to a standstill at this time. The government is currently considering a similar concept with a monthly sports day to improve the population’s overall health. These measures illustrate that Kagame’s Rwanda is not at all about the emancipatory development of a nation, but about a deeply autocratic model.
It is therefore questionable whether the election results reflect overwhelming support for Kagame’s policies or rather stem from fear of repression. The remarkably high voter turnout suggests the latter: according to the electoral commission, 98 percent of the approximately 9.5 million registered voters cast their ballots. This means that Rwanda holds the world record for voter turnout — surpassing even those countries where voting is compulsory by law.
Describing the Rwandan president as a simple autocrat falls short of the mark.
Now 66 years old, Kagame has been in office for almost a quarter of a century. He rules as an autocrat and hardly allows any criticism. The two opposition candidates allowed in this election had no chance from the outset.
In 2015, Kagame had constitutional term limits changed so that he could prolong his reign until 2034 under current legislation. He has repeatedly stated in interviews that he would like to hand over power to a successor, but that at present there is no one who is able and willing to bear this great responsibility. In reality, these statements show how much Kagame is clinging to power. According to his worldview, critical voices that point to the lack of democratic participation or the severe restrictions on freedom of the press and freedom of expression (Rwanda ranks 144 out of 180 in the global index) come exclusively from outside or from enemies of the country.
Creative Foreign Currency Procurement
However, describing the Rwandan president as a simple autocrat falls short of the mark. Aside from his overbearing grip on power, he also has a clear vision for the development of the country, which focuses on its socio-economic development. Young people in particular are to be offered jobs and prospects for the future. Rwanda is to develop into a middle-income country by 2035 and a high-income country by 2050. Furthermore, it aspires to become a preferred financial hub for investments in Africa and play a key role in the efforts for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Realizing this vision will be anything but easy, as the country faces numerous challenges. The population is growing rapidly, and population density is already very high at 582 inhabitants per square kilometre. The landscape consists mainly of nutrient-poor soils that are also subject to erosion. Given that most farming is small-scale, the country is not able to guarantee food security for the population and is therefore dependent on food imports. Well over half of Rwandans live below the poverty line.
The landlocked nation has neither significant raw materials to draw upon, nor its own industrial infrastructure. Rwanda is therefore unable to take the usual path of generating state revenue through the exploitation of its own resources, as many neighbouring countries do. This means that it will take special ingenuity to bring foreign currency into the country.
Kagame and his government have demonstrated just such ingenuity in the many years he has been in office. For instance, the capital, Kigali, as described above, has managed to spruce itself up in a relatively short time and become the most important international conference centre in East Africa. It offers all the necessary infrastructure: a modern airport, uncomplicated entry requirements, short distances, low crime and corruption rates, and hotels that meet international standards. Thus, the many international guests not only bring the needed foreign currency into the country but also contribute to the creation of many jobs in the service sector.
Reconciliation and Peace as Sources of Income
One of Kagame’s key achievements is keeping the country stable and at peace since the 1994 genocide. This is no small feat, as the fear of renewed atrocities is still very present. Kagame’s role in the peace process is widely recognized and appreciated.
Kagame has been able to capitalize on the need to rebuild the country and on the associated reconciliation process. The willingness of international organizations — including those from Germany — to provide generous funding for reparation and reconciliation projects remains unabated. One can now even speak of the emergence of a separate branch of industry that keeps historical reflection alive. Leading this reconciliation process alongside the president is his wife, Jeanette Kagame.
Kagame and his political style are too complex for a one-dimensional assessment.
To maintain peace in the unstable region, Rwanda needs a loyal and well-trained military. Here, too, Kagame has followed the pattern of combining the necessary with the useful, building up an army that is among the most capable forces in Africa. The Rwandan military is a key player in various multinational UN missions (such as UNAMID in Darfur, Sudan), but has also recently been increasingly deployed for bilateral missions, such as the military operation in Mozambique. With this strategic move, Kagame is able to guarantee national security while simultaneously expanding his influence in the region. In doing so, he can present himself using the newly established narrative in which Rwanda stages itself as a nation of peace. The fact that such missions generate foreign currency and provide income for young men is probably more than a welcome side effect.
The Refugee Deal
In his desire to develop the country economically, Kagame is also taking unconventional paths. A prominent example of this is the recently negotiated — but now suspended — deal with the United Kingdom, which involved transferring asylum-seeker admission procedures from Europe to Rwanda. The completion of this deal would have brought large amounts of foreign currency into the country. For Kagame, however, such an agreement would have meant another success as well. For it is clear that anyone entering into such a deal with Kigali would no longer be able to criticize the country’s policies without discrediting themselves.
Despite the progress the country has made since the genocide, the international community must continue to keep a critical eye on Rwanda, for Kagame continues to suppress dissenting opinions without hesitation. Human rights organizations have repeatedly reported serious human rights violations in the country. There are allegations of extrajudicial executions, torture, and the disappearance of critics of the regime. Reports have also surfaced repeatedly about how the Kagame government exerts control down to the lowest levels. This mainly concerns control over the narrative, because international support, which is urgently needed, will only continue if Kagame maintains the image he has created of a “model developing country” that uses funds wisely.
To this end, Kagame’s foreign policy must also attempt the increasingly difficult balancing act of doing justice to as many players as possible in a multipolar world. This means avoiding being co-opted, so as not to offend others, while simultaneously presenting himself as an independent global player.
The figure of Kagame and his political style are too complex for a one-dimensional assessment. His efforts to unite the deeply traumatized and decimated country and to ensure the population’s very survival are certainly extraordinary. At the same time, however, his authoritarian approach to government keeps raising human rights concerns at home and abroad. Whether Kagame will cement his autocratic political style in his next term or allow more room for opposition must therefore be closely monitored.
This article first appeared in nd.Aktuell in collaboration with the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation. Translated for Gegensatz Translation Collective by Diego Otero and Anna Dinwoodie.