Ethiopia Is Trapped between War and Crisis

The cityscape of Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, is transforming on an almost-daily basis. Streets that just months ago were lined with houses — some even heritage-listed — have now been replaced by wide avenues, where large construction sites stand alongside newly completed concrete high-rises. One of the latest decrees issued by the Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, stipulates that only grey or white may be used for the paintwork of all buildings, which has stripped Addis Ababa of its charm and turned the metropolis into a soulless city of concrete.

This may serve as a warning sign regarding the excesses of Ahmed’s time in office. According to the World Food Programme, Ethiopia is currently the third-most affected country by hunger worldwide. Despite massive state subsidies, Ethiopia’s currency, the birr, is experiencing severe inflation. For the current year, national debt is expected to exceed 30 percent of gross domestic product. The outlook for the country is anything but rosy.

Ahmed’s prime ministership began with great promise. The peace agreement signed with Eritrea shortly after he took office in 2018 ended the long-lasting hostilities between the two countries. This attracted considerable international attention and Ahmed was even awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the peace agreement in 2019, which in turn prompted the international donor community to support his country generously.

As a result of the peace agreement, which ended a 20-year border war, the air and land routes between Eritrea and Ethiopia were reopened, allowing families and friends to reunite after a long period of no communication. However, the newfound alliance soon transformed into a collaboration in a different war, against the Ethiopian province of Tigray. The governments of both countries began fighting against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in November 2020. The Eritrean military supported the Ethiopian National Army with troops and financial resources. This war claimed countless civilian lives but was largely ignored by the international community.

President Ahmed further exacerbated tensions with neighbouring countries when he described Ethiopia’s landlocked geographical position as a historic mistake in need of correction — preferably through negotiations, but, if necessary, by force.

A peace agreement signed in November 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF was intended to formally end the war in Tigray. Once again, there was considerable support (and funding) from the West, including from Germany. However, the plan to support Ahmed’s government in disarming the province of Tigray and establishing a sustainable peace failed. This was primarily due to the exclusion of Eritrea and the nationalist Fano militia from the agreement. The heavily armed Fano controls large parts of the neighbouring Amahra province, where the situation has now deteriorated to the point that long-distance road travel is discouraged, as the militia frequently carries out kidnappings to extort ransoms.

The Ethiopian National Army seems unable to do much to counter the Fano militia. In order to prevent it from spreading northwards into Tigray, the Ahmed government has abandoned its plan to disarm the TPLF. As a result, the domestic political situation remains tense, with no political solution in sight.

Tensions in the Horn

In addition, Ahmed’s foreign policy has significantly intensified tensions in the region, where the struggle for supremacy continues.

For years, Ethiopia and Egypt have been at odds over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) near the Sudanese border. Cairo has repeatedly accused Addis Ababa of jeopardizing its water supply by building the dam, and no mutually satisfactory solution has been found so far.

Last year, President Ahmed further exacerbated tensions with neighbouring countries when he described Ethiopia’s landlocked geographical position as a historic mistake in need of correction — preferably through negotiations, but, if necessary, by force.

Indeed, the country’s lack of access to the sea does weaken its economy, which is heavily reliant on imports, as the harbour in neighbouring Djibouti — used by Ethiopia until 2018 — is no longer accessible. However, Ahmed’s unexpected signing of a declaration of intent at the beginning of the year to build a massive port in Somaliland, a region which has seceded from Somalia, is causing new tensions. Ahmed has also pledged support for Somaliland’s recognition as a sovereign state.

For Somaliland’s president, Muse Bihi Abdi, the agreement with Ethiopia represented a diplomatic success. Support from the most influential country in the Horn of Africa is seen as an important step towards international recognition of independence.

At the same time, however, this move aroused the suspicion of neighbouring countries. On 10 October 2024, the heads of state and government of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia reaffirmed a strengthening of their relations, with the aim of curbing Ethiopian influence in the Horn of Africa. The alliance between the three countries, solidified by the establishment of a trilateral committee, presents Ethiopia with new challenges in the region.

With repression against civil society on the rise, human rights activists and journalists are increasingly being forced to flee the country.

Somalia’s decision to join the alliance between Egypt and Eritrea is a direct response to the port agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, as the government in Mogadishu still does not recognize Somaliland’s 1991 declaration of independence. The clearest sign of Somalia’s disapproval of the port agreement came in mid-August with the signing of a military pact with Egypt, Ethiopia’s biggest rival. Since then, Egypt has delivered two shipments of arms to Somalia, including howitzers and armoured vehicles.

Eritrea, on the other hand, which has been in conflict with Ethiopia for decades, sees the tripartite alliance as a strategic opportunity to bolster its regional standing. From its perspective, any expansion of Ethiopian influence in the region poses a direct threat, particularly in terms of control over key maritime routes. The recent suspension of Ethiopian airline flights to Eritrea exemplifies the recent rise in tensions.

On the Road to Autocracy

In response to the growing external and internal political challenges, President Ahmed has resorted to repression. His government has devolved into an autocracy in recent years, with his critics also describing it as an “aristocracy”. One of our contacts in Addis Ababa fears that “Ahmed is seeking a constitutional amendment geared towards a presidential system in order to further consolidate and expand his power.” A local journalist we spoke to highlighted that “there are no strong institutions to monitor compliance with democracy.” Ahmed is viewed as a ruler who, much like Paul Kagame in Rwanda, wishes to control everything on his own.

To secure his position, the president is cracking down hard on his critics. With repression against civil society on the rise, human rights activists and journalists are increasingly being forced to flee the country. It is therefore not surprising that numerous non-governmental organizations have been banned, and since August 2023, no new human rights organizations have been registered in the country.

The fact that even the severe economic crisis and the central government’s military and political weakness have not led to a change of course shows how firmly entrenched Ahmed’s position is.

Ahmed is getting away with this because, although the central government has no control over large parts of the country, he dominates the media, through which he disseminates a narrative that he has created and controls. As with Kagame in Rwanda, this narrative is of crucial importance in keeping international donors satisfied, given his regime’s high dependence on foreign support. On this front, he is clearly succeeding — Addis Ababa continues to be regarded internationally as one of the most important conference centres on the African continent. Participants at international conferences, who are presented with a modern urban environment suitable for lucrative investments, are simply unaware of what is happening in the rest of the country.

Opulence for the Rulers, Misery for the Masses

While poverty in the country grows as a result of the war, Ahmed ensures an opulent lifestyle for himself and his inner circle. As mentioned above, he is not only remodelling the capital but also building a multi-billion-dollar national palace on the hills outside the city gates. The estate is set to cover an area of 500 hectares and include three artificial lakes, a luxury hotel, conference halls, a waterfall, a zoo, a cable car, and imported palm trees.

It is unclear how the palace is being financed. When asked about this by members of parliament, Ahmed replied that the financing is irrelevant as it is not part of the official budget. However, most Western diplomats in the city suspect that the United Arab Emirates is covering the costs of this sumptuous building to expand its influence in Addis Ababa and thus in the Horn of Africa.

In fact, this money is urgently needed to rebuild the war-torn economy, yet Ahmed appears to have no clear plan for developing the country. Still, there is hardly any resistance among the population, as intimidation by government authorities suppresses any expressions of dissent. According to one civil society activist we spoke to, Ethiopia’s youth are “either apolitical or willing to use violence”, and “those inclined towards violence readily join one of the militias, and the spiral of violence continues.”

There is little hope for the country’s prosperity in the foreseeable future. The fact that even the severe economic crisis and the central government’s military and political weakness have not led to a change of course shows how firmly entrenched Ahmed’s position is. It therefore seems unlikely that the current eight-year limit on his term of office, set to end in 2026, will remain in place.

For the hunger-stricken population, this means they will have to bear most of the burdens caused by the economic crisis and the war.

This text first appeared in nd.aktuell in cooperation with the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation. Translated by Diego Otero and Ryan Eyers for Gegensatz Translation Collective.