The New Green “Old Extractivist” Agenda

The upcoming COP29 conference, scheduled to take place from 11 to 22 November 2024 in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, will revolve around a Global Green Deal with the objective of harmonizing international frameworks for climate change, biodiversity, and sustainable development. Azerbaijan has underscored the importance of the green economy through the slogan “leave no one behind”. This slogan reflects the core promise of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which commits member states to addressing poverty, discrimination, and inequality by tackling the root causes of marginalization. This framework emphasizes the integration of human rights considerations within the climate change discourse.

Nonetheless, the political realities in Azerbaijan present a stark contrast to these commitments. The country’s authoritarian and conservative regime, characterized by tendencies toward fascism, reveals a profound disparity between official rhetoric and the lived experience in Azerbaijan. The severe human rights violations and repressive actions against politically active individuals underscore this discrepancy.

Where Is Resistance to Be Found?

Politics in Azerbaijan has been stripped of its radical activism for a long time. The apolitical character of Soviet politics, followed by authoritarian management after independence, demobilized the people and left them completely apathetic in relation to politics, except for nationalist narratives. 

Liberal civil society was heavily crushed for the first time in 2014, opening a space for radicalization of politics and activism. Starting from 2014, there was no established NGO or political party in the country, as registering new organizations was almost impossible. Receiving grants was equally impossible, and foreign organizations that had once flourished in Baku left the country. Civil society consisted of individuals and small grassroots initiatives. This pushed younger people to activism beyond NGOs, to radical organizing. However, with the recent crackdowns ongoing in the country, which started last summer, the newly emerging energy for change was dismantled again.

There are no groups in Azerbaijan who can effectively oppose the government narrative.

Local communities protesting against the injustices by the local police or executive officers were also brutally suppressed. The most recent communal uprising happened in June 2023. A group of people in Söyüdlü village in the north-west of Azerbaijan gathered to protest against the creation of a second artificial reservoir that dumps the post-industrial processed waste from the Gadabay gold mine, operated by  Anglo Asian Mining PLC with alleged connections to the ruling family. They were brutally suppressed. The whole village was blockaded, and police raided the village, using tear gas and arresting the protestors, many of whom are still in prison. The entrance to the village has been under continuous police surveillance until today. The blockade happened in parallel to the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh and revealed the true face of the regime for many who doubted it. For the Azerbaijani government, Armenian separatist and Azerbaijani protestors were no different, both faced the same level of brutality. This was a sobering slap into the face to some nationalist groups.

After gaining full control over all disputed territories in the fall of 2023, Ilham Aliyev – son of the Heydar Aliyev, the former head of the Communist Party and, after Azerbaijan became independent, president from 1993 to 2003 – turned to domestic affairs and lauched a brutal crackdown on civil society. Independent media outlets like Abzas Media and Toplum TV were shut down, their editors and staff arrested on heavy charges of smuggling money, their offices raided, and anyone affiliated with them either interrogated by police or arrested.

This attack was followed by a smear campaign on activists that associated them with US spies and grant recipients, accusing them of wanting to destroy domestic political stability. The story goes that the US wants to destabilize the situation in Azerbaijan and funds feminist and queer activism. Arrests continue until today, with the most recent arrest of a Talysh scholar, Igbal Abilov, and a young scholar, Bahruz Samadov, accusing them of collaborating with Armenians and of treason. Many other activists either left the country and went into exile, became invisible, or stopped their activities.

There are no groups in the country who can effectively oppose the government narrative. However, notwithstanding this dire picture, resistance exists in various forms and continues to disturb the stability of people in the “kingdom of oil and millions” cursed with an abundance of oil and gas.

COP29 in the Framework of Green Capitalism

Ecological modernization is increasingly shaping the international political agenda. Many countries are adopting more pronounced “green” industrial policies. For example, the European Green Deal enhances financial incentives and legal frameworks for green innovations. Particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has experienced an energy supply crisis. This led to swift agreements under the guise of “green” modernization and sustainability with various countries, including Azerbaijan.

The influential political and economic forces behind the hegemonic project of green capitalism seek to ensure future conditions for capital accumulation through ecological modernization and to establish the requisite political frameworks. Concurrently, these forces are intensifying their efforts to organize access to external resources, especially raw materials and intermediate goods. In this context, conferences like COP29 in Azerbaijan play a central role in establishing new markets for the stable accumulation and regulation of global capital in green. However, this often overlooks the accompanying socio-political conflicts, such as the repression of conservative or emancipatory political activists and journalists, the suppression of eco-protesters like those in Söyüdlü, and the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh as a result of the Azerbaijani invasion.

Following the Second Karabakh War in 2020, and especially after the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, Azerbaijan has made extensive efforts to position Nagorno-Karabakh as a lucrative resource hub, whether for renewable energy or the extraction of critical raw materials such as copper, cobalt, gold, silver, etc.

The 2022 agreement between the Azerbaijani government and the British company Anglo-Asian Mining, which involved three additional mining areas, increased the strategic importance of the Qizilbulag and Demirli gold mines in Nagorno-Karabakh. This heightened significance led to the implementation of the Lachin Corridor blockade, which lasted more than ten months and led to starvation. The aim was to instil fear in Armenians so that they would no longer have any prospects on the ground.

In the context of transporting raw materials essential to the Western world, the issue of stable transportation routes becomes especially pertinent. Consequently, the most viable and secure option might be the implementation of a critical raw material supply route from Central Asia to Europe through Azerbaijan.

Although these mines were inactive at the time of signing the contract, their operation is reported to depend on the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh’s final status. This plan fit well with Azerbaijan’s geopolitical strategy, driven as it is by the imperative to control and reshape strategic spaces, aligned with broader capitalist interests in the region. Consequently, Azerbaijan’s military and diplomatic actions have aimed to secure a controlled (or authoritarian) peace, further consolidating its power at the expense of Armenia’s capitulation. On 28 September 2023, a decree was issued mandating the dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh by 1 January 2024. This decision was facilitated by the war’s effects: in September, after a 10-month Azerbaijani blockade that led to fatal shortages of food, medicine, and energy, over 100,000 Armenians were forcibly displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh.

A primary objective for economic development in Nagorno-Karabakh, as articulated by President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, is the conversion of these regions into a “green energy” zone. President Aliyev has outlined a strategic plan to create this Green Energy Zone (AREA n.d.), emphasizing the area’s significant renewable energy potential. The claim by President Aliyev to transform Nagorno-Karabakh into a “Green Zone” does not obviate the fact that critical raw materials such as cobalt and copper will continue to be extracted in large quantities from the region. Nagorno-Karabakh, known for its abundant mineral resources, holds strategic significance. Following the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Environment and Natural Resources and President of COP29, hosted the inaugural GeoMining Baku mining fair in October 2023.

On 26 October 2023, Baku further underscored its mining aspirations by hosting the first international geology-mining forum, with over 30 countries in attendance. Babayev, who officially opened the forum, emphasized Azerbaijan’s considerable potential for international mining collaborations and the strategic importance of the mineral resources in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Zangazur region. These forums aim to attract corporate investment opportunities as Azerbaijan seeks to transform the region into a “green” zone, capitalizing on its abundant copper and cobalt resources (ACC n.d.), essential for the production of batteries, renewable energy cables, and military equipment. However, the significant CO2 emissions resulting from their production remain unaddressed.

In the context of transporting raw materials essential to the Western world, the issue of stable transportation routes becomes especially pertinent. Consequently, the most viable and secure option might be the implementation of a critical raw material supply route from Central Asia to Europe through Azerbaijan. The Nagorno-Karabakh region also serves as a potential economic transit route between Asia and Europe, particularly in the current geopolitical context. Azerbaijan is promoting the term “East and West Zangezur” to assert its historical claim over the area and control of this key corridor, which, however, is Armenian land located between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is aware that the EU has signed agreements for lithium production — a critical raw material for electric cars, e-bikes, batteries for solar energy, and computers — with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. With Iran and Russia unsuitable as routes, Nagorno-Karabakh, along with the “Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor,” is set to play a significant role as an international trade route for Azerbaijan.

What Is to Be Done?

COP29 represents an attempt to create new markets under the guise of solving the environmental crisis. Therefore, COP29 serves as a platform where the green capitalist narrative is normalized, creating the illusion of “greening” the old economic model while supposedly actively combating the climate crisis. It is, therefore, not surprising that liberal-democratic states, functioning as instruments of capital accumulation similar to authoritarian states, have no concerns about cooperating with regimes like Azerbaijan, all for the core aim of serving the global world economy — one of their primary functions — against the backdrop of severe human rights violations and repression against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and against the Azerbaijani-speaking political landscape.

When confronted with the dichotomy of “liberal democracy versus authoritarianism,” these liberal democratic nation-states assert their moral superiority. However, they simultaneously contribute to the authoritarian conditions in Azerbaijan while maintaining their stance of moral high ground.

The climate crisis is worsened by the ongoing rise in demand for raw materials and energy under green capitalism, as it supports the global capitalist production and growth system.

It is clear, however, that global capital accumulation demands solutions to the severe impacts of the climate crisis, driven by the competitive, growth-oriented, and profit-driven principles of capitalism, without recognizing capitalism itself as part of the problem. The climate crisis cannot be addressed without transforming the economy. Even if it is green: the capitalist mode of production is the primary reason humanity is exceeding planetary boundaries and heading into a potentially catastrophic situation.

Capitalism, due to its inherent logic of competition, growth, and profit, is structurally blind to its own social and ecological impacts. It stems from the growth imperative of an economic system that relies on competition and fossil fuels. Climate change represents the dark side of the societal acceptance and global spread of emission-intensive patterns of production and consumption. Additionally, it is fuelled by the tolerance of social inequality and the destructive activities of the super-rich, such as their investment decisions.

The climate crisis is worsened by the ongoing rise in demand for raw materials and energy under green capitalism, as it supports the global capitalist production and growth system. This increase is partly driven by digitalization and the partial decarbonization efforts, known as the “twin transition.” In contrast to strategies that affirm modernization, transformative strategies could be considered. Discussions on downsizing based on solidarity have been actively ongoing for some time under terms such as “post-growth” and “degrowth”, in contrast to the capitalist-driven growth pressures that are perpetuated by conferences like COP29.

As long as these problems are not addressed at their roots, namely by questioning the global economic model, conferences like COP29 will only continue to accelerate the climate crisis.