Off to the Front!

The Germans love their minister of defence: according to an ARD DeutschlandTrend survey earlier this month, 55 percent of citizens are satisfied with the work of Boris Pistorius. No other national politician comes even close to polling numbers like that, whether in- or outside the recently collapsed government, the so-called “traffic-light coalition”. Christian Democrat (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz came second in the same survey with 30 percent, followed by Sahra Wagenknecht with 24 percent.

Boris Pistorius’s mission to make Germany “combat-ready” also seems to enjoy widespread approval. Captaining the project with an intense scowl, the message from the electorate is clear: the country needs more politicians like this guy!

It was thus all the more curious that, when news of the coalition’s collapse broke, hardly anyone bothered to ask what would become of the defence minister’s biggest project: reinstating mandatory military conscription. Almost all eyes were first on the new US president-elect Donald Trump, then on the tussle between Scholz and (ex-)Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and finally on the self-appointed Green candidate for chancellor, Robert Habeck. The fact that the government’s collapse would likely delay an essential part of its defence policy Zeitenwende — namely, boosting the number of personnel in the Germany Army, the Bundeswehr — went completely unnoticed. Yet the recent upheavals in Berlin have serious implications for the further militarization of the country.

Conscription without Compulsion

Germany suspended mandatory military service in 2011. Since then, young men are no longer obliged to serve in the armed forces. The state instead relies on voluntary recruitment for its staff: the Bundeswehr is a professional army. Yet the new model has struggled to get on its feet, and every year many positions remain unfilled. Pistorius’s stated goal of reaching 460,000 active troops and reservists remains a distant, perhaps even unattainable dream.

Conservatives have thus long called for a return to mandatory conscription. In hindsight, Pistorius also thinks its abolishment was a mistake, yet so far hasn’t been unable to convince his fellow Social Democrats of the same. This disunity resulted in a peculiar compromise proposal: a new, voluntary military service.

In Pistorius’s view, all young men should be obliged to fill out a questionnaire concerning their willingness and fitness for military service on their eighteenth birthday. A least in theory, this could grant the army a fresh supply of new recruits for 6–24 months, without resorting to conscription.

Regardless of who ends up in government, there is a serious risk of Germany reintroducing mandatory service in the medium term.

But what if these measures fail? Or, put another way: why should they succeed in the first place? Practically every young person can already freely decide to join the army. The idea that a questionnaire would fundamentally increase their interest in a military career is not very plausible. Should it fail, would the state just learn to live with fewer soldiers?

Hardly: a return of mandatory conscription would almost certainly be the consequence. Viewed in this light, Pistorius’s proposal is likely disingenuous: unable to get his own party (and the broader coalition) on board, he’s calling for a watered-down version in order to implement the actual programme after the weaker one fails. Voluntary military service would then just be mandatory military service through the back door.

War, but Make It Feminist

What now? It is quite unlikely that the proposal, which was announced months ago, will be implemented. Earlier this month, the newspaper Wirtschaftswoche cited a Ministry of Defence staffer who offered the following drastic assessment: “We have the impression that the project is dead in the water.”

This is hardly surprising: the coalition has collapsed, and the CDU has no interest in helping the SPD and Greens attain a majority. The CDU is even less attached to voluntary service than Pistorius: over a month ago, Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder called for reinstating mandatory conscription as soon as possible. The CDU candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently explained to a popular talk show that his party plans to change the constitution to make conscription mandatory not only for men, but for women as well. It almost feels like the conservative version of the centre-left’s “feminist foreign policy”: soon, women too will be able to honourably give their lives for the fatherland.

The only question that remains is how all this new German power will be wielded.

Given that, it would be crazy for the CDU to support Pistorius’s project: why should they help the SPD achieve mandatory service lite, when they can go the whole hog after winning the election?

With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility

Regardless of who ends up in government, there is a serious risk of Germany reintroducing mandatory service in the medium term. No political party with a chance of entering government is bucking the current trend. This became particularly evident two weeks ago, when Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz called for more defence spending in response to Trump’s re-election, while Robert Habeck even tabled the idea of creating a new special fund for precisely such efforts prior to the elections.

The only question that remains, then, is how all this new German power will be wielded. Would the envisaged 460,000 (!) soldiers really only serve to defend the country? Hardly. Back in February 2022, shortly after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Friedrich Merz declared: “Germany must finally be willing to define its interests, and above to secure those interests. This includes, but not only, the ability to protect and defend our own territory.”

The CDU is thus already thinking well beyond the military defence of Germany’s borders, as are parts of the SPD. In a paper published back in January 2023, the latter declared: “Only a strong Europe will allow us to work globally for our values and interests — alone, we are too small to exert influence. That is why it is fundamentally in our interests to play a leading role in the strengthening of Europe as an attractive global centre.”

The SPD wants to play a leading role in Europe, Merz wants to be able to nakedly pursue German interests, and high-ranking defence politicians such as Roderich Kiesewetter were already calling for Germany to provide military support to Israel months ago. Thanks to the US election and the collapse of the traffic-light coalition, this new German militarism could took shape even sooner than expected. But its foundations were already there, helped along by a very, very grand coalition.

Translated by Marty Hiatt and Ryan Eyers for Gegensatz Translation Collective.