Namibia Decides

Since gaining independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibia has been on a journey marked by political stability and democratic governance. The Southwest Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), the ruling party and former liberation movement, has dominated the political landscape, shaping the nation’s policies and direction. However, with national and presidential elections looming on 27 November 2024, Namibia finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with issues of governance, economic stability, inequality, and social justice.

The Road to Independence

Namibia’s political history is deeply rooted in its struggle for independence, characterized by SWAPO’s leading role in attaining national liberation from South Africa’s apartheid regime. The protracted armed struggle was marked by a strong sense of national unity and a shared commitment to ending apartheid rule. At the dawn of independence, SWAPO established a dominant party system that has persisted ever since.

This dominance was initially seen as a stabilizing force, allowing the country to consolidate its democracy and engage in nation building. In the early years of independence, the political landscape was largely shaped by a need to address the legacies of colonialism, including economic inequality, racial divisions, and a lack of infrastructure. The SWAPO-led government’s policies focused on reconciliation, economic empowerment for previously disadvantaged communities, and establishing a democratic framework. However, the political landscape evolved, with new parties emerging and increasing demands for transparency and accountability due to growing dissatisfaction with SWAPO’s governance, as its policies were criticized for insufficiently addressing corruption, mismanagement, and economic inequality.

While Namibia has maintained a stable democracy, the challenges of governance have become more complex. The transition from the founding generation to a new political elite has brought shifts in priorities and leadership styles. The political environment has also been influenced by regional and global trends, including the rise of populism, economic globalization, and the increasing importance of social media in shaping public opinion.

In addition, new political formations such as the Congress of Democrats (COD), Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), the All People’s Party (APP), the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), and more recently the Landless People’s Movement (LPM), Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), and the Affirmative Repositioning Party have introduced new dynamics. These parties have challenged SWAPO’s hegemony, raising critical issues about governance, economic management, and social justice. The 2024 elections therefore represent a crucial moment in Namibia’s democratic evolution, as voters weigh the legacy of the past against the possibilities of the future.

Crisis and Corruption

The past few years have seen significant political and social developments in Namibia. Its economy, heavily reliant on mining and other extractive industries, was severely impacted by the global downturn, leading to reduced revenues, increased unemployment, and rising public debt. The pandemic further strained the economy, exposing vulnerabilities in the education and healthcare systems and deepening existing inequalities.

In 2021, the unemployment rate stood at around 33.4 percent, with youth unemployment over 46 percent. This was worsened by the global downturn, and particularly by external factors such as commodity price fluctuations and the global slowdown. In 2020, Namibia’s GDP contracted by 8.5 percent due to the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic recession. A modest recovery was projected in 2023, albeit still below pre-crisis levels, with GDP growth of around 4.6 percent driven by higher mining output, particularly diamonds and uranium.

Economic challenges have been compounded by scandals that erode public trust in politicians and government institutions. Most notable is the Fishrot scandal, in which high-level officials and businessmen were implicated in a scheme to embezzle millions of dollars from the country’s fishing industry. This not only highlighted the pervasive nature of corruption, but also the weaknesses in Namibia’s governance structures and the need for transparency and stronger accountability mechanisms.

Public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of economic and social issues has been growing, leading to widespread protests and calls for reform. The LPM, the Affirmative Repositioning movement, and other civil society organizations have mobilized communities to demand land reform, better public services, and more economic opportunities for the youth.

The rise of social media activism has further amplified these voices, putting pressure on political leaders to address the concerns of ordinary citizens. These developments have also influenced the strategies of both the ruling party and the opposition. While acknowledging the challenges, SWAPO has sought to present itself as the party of stability and continuity. By contrast, opposition parties have positioned themselves as agents of change, advocating a break from the past and promising more inclusive and transparent governance.

SWAPO’s Strength

Despite the country’s multiparty politics, successive elections have been one-horse races. SWAPO’s dominance of the political landscape grew, while support declined for opposition parties, often fragmented along ethnic and regional lines.

SWAPO secured a two-thirds majority in the 1994 parliamentary elections. By 2014, it had consolidated its dominance, winning nearly 80 percent of the vote. The late President Hage Geingob set a record in that election with 87 percent of the vote — the highest ever for any presidential candidate. Geingob’s broad support stemmed from his leadership of the Constituent Assembly, which drafted the Namibian Constitution, and his reputation as a skilled technocrat, having served as Namibia’s first prime minister.

SWAPO’s success is often attributed to its role as a former liberation movement credited with freeing Namibia. The party’s historical significance and liberation credentials continue to substantially influence in Namibian politics. However, political landscapes evolve, and current realities such as unemployment, rising living costs, dissatisfaction with governance, and corruption scandals have begun to shape voter sentiment. Notably, the Fishrot scandal and economic hardship have contributed to shaping public opinion, while issues like land reform and public services have also impacted voter preferences.

For many young Namibians, the promises of post-independence prosperity remain unfulfilled.

As a result, SWAPO faces increasing challenges from opposition parties. These groups have capitalized on public discontentment, advocating greater transparency, economic reforms, and social justice. Although the ruling party remained in power after the 2019 elections, the results marked a shift in the political landscape. SWAPO’s presidential candidate was re-elected with only 56 percent of the vote, and the party garnered 65 percent — a significant drop from previous electoral victories.

It also lost its two-thirds majority in parliament, which it had held since 1994. In regional elections, support fell from 83 percent in 2015 to 57 percent in 2020, while in local elections, it dropped to 40 percent from 73 percent. For the first time, SWAPO lost control of key regions, including the southern Hardap and ǁKaras regions, Erongo, and the northwestern Kunene region. Opposition parties like LPM and IPC gained control, while SWAPO even lost support in northern strongholds. Major urban centres like Walvis Bay, Swakopmund, and Windhoek were lost to opposition forces, highlighting a growing disconnect between the ruling party and urban voters.

SWAPO’s decline reflects growing dissatisfaction, particularly among urban and younger voters disillusioned by high youth unemployment, corruption, and ageing leadership. Many voters feel that post-independence Namibia has not delivered the prosperity and freedom once promised, especially for the younger generation.

SWAPO’s long tenure has been both an asset and a liability. Its deep ties to the liberation struggle and its role in shaping Namibia’s independence have earned it loyalty, particularly from older voters and rural communities. Yet its long-standing dominance has also led to accusations of complacency, corruption, and an inability to address the concerns of the youth.

SWAPO’s ideology has evolved over time. It was founded as a socialist liberation movement with a strong left-wing orientation. While it retains some leftist rhetoric, particularly in areas of social welfare and addressing historical injustices, its practical governance aligns more with centrist or centre-right ideologies, especially in economic policy. This shift reflects its adaptation to governing a modern, market-oriented economy.

The PDM has rebranded itself as a modern, centrist party appealing to urban voters and the youth, while the LPM focuses on land reform and social justice, especially in regions where land inequality is most pronounced. IPC, led by Dr. Panduleni Itula, has attracted support from disillusioned SWAPO members, positioning itself as a fresh alternative.

The Impact of the Youth Vote

As Namibia moves toward the 2024 elections, one of the most significant factors that could alter the political landscape is the youth vote. Namibia’s population is predominantly young, with over 60 percent under the age of 30. The Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) recently announced that the majority of registered voters (900,102 out of 1.4 million) were born between 1982 and 1996. This demographic has become increasingly disillusioned with the ruling party, especially in urban areas, due to persistent unemployment, lack of opportunities, and perceived corruption.

For many young Namibians, the promises of post-independence prosperity remain unfulfilled. This discontentment has manifested in protests and movements like the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) movement, the LPM, and the Namibian Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF), which has rallied the youth around issues of land reform and social justice. These movements reflect a shift in political engagement, with the youth turning to non-traditional spaces to voice their concerns.

The youth vote has the potential to significantly shift the balance of power in the 2024 elections. A politically engaged and mobilized youth could undermine SWAPO’s traditional dominance and bring forth a more dynamic and competitive political environment.

Challenging Patriarchal Leadership Norms

Namibia’s political history has been largely dominated by men. Female candidates in the 2024 elections, such as Nandi Netumbo Ndaitwah (SWAPO), Ally Angula (independent), and Rosa Namises (independent) directly challenged entrenched patriarchal power, confronting societal expectations about leadership and gender roles. Although Angula and Namises are no longer in the race because they did not meet the ECN’s signature requirements, their participation remains significant. Their campaigns encouraged more women to engage politically and pressured political parties to prioritize gender balance, potentially leading to reshuffles in party leadership to include more women in meaningful roles, not just as token candidates.

In addition, female presidential candidates tend to introduce or elevate issues that affect women and marginalized groups. Gender-based violence, for example, remains a critical issue in Namibia, with the country consistently ranking high in incidents of violence against women. Female candidates may also push for stronger reproductive rights, better healthcare access for women, and policies that address economic challenges women face, such as wage inequality and lack of entrepreneurial support.

Running as an independent comes with big challenges.

The presence of strong female voices, even those no longer in the race, has already pushed candidates to address gender-sensitive issues in their manifestos. SWAPO, for example, adopted a 50/50 gender representation policy long ago, ensuring that men and women have equal representation in party structures. This policy is reflected in the party’s vice president and current presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, who is a testament to SWAPO’s commitment to gender balance in leadership.

Moreover, Rosa Namises focused her platform on gender-based violence and social justice, bringing crucial issues for women and marginalized groups to the forefront. Ally Angula, prioritizing economic development with policies like a universal income grant (UIG), also aimed to tackle economic inequalities faced by women and vulnerable populations, showing her intent to influence the country’s broader economic policies.

These platforms suggest that the 2024 elections will bring increased attention to gender and social justice issues. While some female candidates are no longer in the race, their impact continues to reshape the political narrative, and there is growing pressure on all parties to prioritize gender balance and social justice in their leadership and policies. SWAPO, PDM, and other parties will likely have to expand their platforms to include more comprehensive social justice policies. This could mean greater attention to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to gender equality and poverty reduction, aligning Namibia’s domestic agenda with global development trends.

Independent Candidates

All independent presidential candidates are now out of the race because they failed to meet the ECN’s strict requirement that signatures be collected from all 14 regions. This development limits voter choice to only those linked to political parties, making the election less open to candidates who lack strong party backing or extensive resources.

In 2019, the rise of independent candidates like Panduleni Itula marked a shift in Namibia’s politics, showing that independents could challenge SWAPO’s long-standing dominance. With female candidates running in 2024, this trend could have continued, possibly leading to more diverse political competition and a reduction in SWAPO’s influence.

Independent candidates usually campaign on popular issues such as fighting corruption, unemployment, and poor governance. If they or smaller parties had managed to gain more votes, it could have paved the way for a coalition government, something new for Namibia. This could have introduced a more balanced political system, where different views from independents and smaller parties must be taken into account when making policies.

However, running as an independent comes with big challenges. For example, an independent presidential candidate must gather at least 500 signatures from each of Namibia’s 14 regions, totalling 7,000 signatures. In comparison, a party candidate only needs 3,500 signatures from seven regions. Additionally, independent candidates must pay a deposit of 10,000 Namibian dollars, while party candidates pay 20,000, both of which are lost if they lose. These financial and logistical barriers make it hard for independents to compete, even though their platforms often resonate with frustrated voters.

Despite these hurdles, candidates like Itula in 2019 showed that independents can still have an impact. But as things stand, the exclusion of independents from the 2024 race means the political landscape may continue to be dominated by party politics.

Female candidates and independents typically draw support from youth and women, demographics that feel under-represented in traditional political systems. Namibia has a very young population, with over 60 percent under 25. Issues like unemployment will be pivotal for these candidates.

A surge in youth and gender-based voting could redefine how campaigns are run, with more emphasis on digital engagement, grassroots mobilization, and addressing socio-economic challenges. Candidates will need to appeal to a more tech-savvy, issue-driven electorate, rather than relying solely on party loyalty or historical affiliation. This could drive policy innovation, with increased attention to modern, digital solutions to Namibia’s socio-economic problems.

Neo-Colonial Resource Exploitation

Green hydrogen is poised to feature prominently in Namibia’s political landscape. It represents both an opportunity for economic growth and a point of political tension, especially around issues of resource management and equitable development. Namibia’s green hydrogen industry is projected to generate 4.1 billion US dollars annually. It could potentially provide employment and stimulate infrastructure development, positioning Namibia as a global player in renewable energy. Well managed, it could diversify the economy, reduce reliance on mining, and promote sustainable development. But there is also a lot of criticism with regard to access to the jobs that might be created in the future as well as distribution of profits.

Namibia’s focus on green hydrogen development began around 2020, and significant progress was made by 2021. The country’s southern regions, particularly the ǁKaras Region near the Tsau ǁKhaeb National Park, have been identified as prime locations for large-scale green hydrogen production. However, environmental organizations and activists see this as a threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Furthermore, the infrastructure for green hydrogen production is, in some places, to be built where German colonial soldiers committed genocide against the OvaHerero and Nama peoples over 100 years ago. The companies in the sector are mainly foreign, e.g., the German-led consortium Hyphen.

Namibia’s electoral dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay of regional, ethnic, and socio-economic factors.

Green hydrogen has the potential to reshape Namibia’s economy, providing a crucial backdrop to political discussions prior to the 2024 elections, and political parties will be vying for control over the narrative surrounding these newly discovered resources. SWAPO will likely promote green hydrogen as a transformative sector capable of providing much-needed economic growth and jobs. It will emphasize large-scale investments, positioning Namibia as a global energy player, which aligns with its campaign focus on stability and continuity.

But opposition parties will be quick to criticize SWAPO’s historical mismanagement of natural resources, drawing attention to past corruption scandals such as Fishrot. The opposition will likely argue that SWAPO’s promises of jobs and economic diversification through green hydrogen may be another false hope if not properly managed. Parties like the LPM, PDM, and others may focus on resource governance, accountability, and transparency, calling for stronger safeguards against corruption and ensuring that revenues benefit Namibians broadly, rather than a select elite.

The 2024 election discourse is also shaped by concerns around neo-colonialism and resource exploitation, particularly regarding green hydrogen projects. Civil society, opposition, and advocacy groups stress local communities’ exclusion from decision making, using this to rally voters who are disillusioned with foreign-dominated projects that might not lead to broad-based local benefits.

Some civil society organisations are pushing back against Namibia becoming a mere supplier of raw materials to Europe, framing it as a form of modern colonialism. They could advocate policies that ensure Namibia retains control over its energy resources and the profits from green hydrogen, framing it as a fight for economic independence.

If SWAPO retains power, it will likely pursue large-scale partnerships with foreign governments and corporations to develop green hydrogen and oil. But this could bring heightened scrutiny from opposition parties and civil society, demanding more inclusivity and transparency.

If an opposition coalition gains power, it may focus on renegotiating deals to ensure greater local benefit, potentially shifting toward more nationalistic or protectionist approaches to resource management. This could drastically shift Namibia’s political and economic trajectory, especially if opposition parties become more assertive about resource ownership and wealth redistribution. There have been notable developments regarding opposition coalitions in Namibia, especially as the elections approach. The Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), led by McHenry Venaani, has actively called for unity to challenge SWAPO’s dominance. Venaani believes that such a coalition could significantly improve the opposition’s chances by combining resources and perspectives, potentially shifting the political landscape.

On the other hand, both the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) and the Landless People’s Movement (LPM) have been more hesitant, downplaying the idea of forming a coalition and expressing scepticism about the feasibility and alignment of interests within such an alliance.

While no specific announcements have been made about renegotiating resource deals, opposition parties’ growing push for local control of resources and wealth redistribution suggests that such shifts could be a focal point if they come to power. This aligns with the broader trend of nationalistic or protectionist approaches to resource management.

Green hydrogen, oil, and gas will not only reshape Namibia’s economy, but also become central themes in 2024 political campaigns, influencing voter decisions, and ultimately determining the country’s path toward resource governance and development.

Ovambo Dominance

Namibia’s electoral dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay of regional, ethnic, and socio-economic factors. SWAPO has historically maintained strong support among rural voters and older generations, particularly within the Ovambo ethnic group. It is the largest ethnic group in Namibia, making up about 50 percent of the population. This demographic dominance helped solidify SWAPO’s influence as it emerged from the liberation struggle, largely driven by Ovambo leadership.

Ovambo political dominance has both strengthened SWAPO’s electoral base and at times contributed to a sense of exclusion among ethnic minorities. While SWAPO has sought to promote national unity by appealing to diverse regions and ethnicities, the perception of Ovambo favouritism persists. Minority ethnic groups like the Herero, Nama, Damara, and San often express feelings of political and economic marginalization. This marginalization manifests in unequal access to resources, political appointments, and development projects, particularly in regions outside the Ovambo-majority north.

Marginalization in Namibia often takes the form of economic disparities, uneven development, and unequal access to land.

Consequently, several opposition parties have found support in these minority communities. For instance, the LPM, which is particularly strong in southern Namibia, draws significant backing from the Nama people. Its platform focuses on issues like land restitution, economic inequality, and historical grievances, particularly concerning the legacies of colonial dispossession. On the other hand, IPC has built a diverse coalition, including disaffected urban voters and those dissatisfied with SWAPO’s governance. Supporters include former SWAPO members from various ethnic backgrounds and urban youth who feel disconnected from the ruling party’s rural-centric policies.

Moreover, ethnic minority groups like the Herero and Damara have also historically supported opposition parties like the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), which appeals to voters in central Namibia. These groups often feel side-lined by SWAPO’s centralization of power, with development and decision-making concentrated in the northern regions where Ovambo communities reside.

Colonialism and Genocide

The Herero-Nama genocide (1904–1908) under German colonial rule remains a deeply sensitive issue in Namibia. The genocide, in which tens of thousands of Herero and Nama were killed, has left a legacy of unresolved trauma and demands for reparations.

In recent years, the Namibian and German governments negotiated a “Joint Declaration” that acknowledges the genocide and proposes development aid as a form of reparations. But the declaration has faced criticism, particularly from descendants of genocide victims, who argue that it does not go far enough in recognizing the atrocities or providing direct compensation.

The genocide and the unratified Joint Declaration have become significant political issues, particularly for opposition parties whose support bases include Herero and Nama descendants. These parties have criticized SWAPO’s handling of the negotiations, accusing it of side-lining the affected communities in favour of state-led development projects that do not adequately address historical grievances. This has increased ethnic tensions, especially in election cycles, when issues of land reform, historical justice, and ethnic representation come to the forefront.

While SWAPO has traditionally downplayed ethnic divisions in favour of a national identity built on the liberation struggle, opposition parties continue to leverage the unresolved genocide issue to galvanize support in regions where these historical wounds run deep. The 2024 elections may therefore see a resurgence of debates about historical injustice and ongoing critiques of the Namibian government’s failure to sign the Joint Declaration, leaving the genocide issue unresolved for many voters.

Lastly, marginalization in Namibia often takes the form of economic disparities, uneven development, and unequal access to land, which have deep historical roots dating back to colonial dispossession. Minority regions have seen less government investment, resulting in growing frustration, particularly among communities that feel excluded from economic opportunities and political influence. Opposition parties use this marginalization to build support, promising more equitable resource distribution and addressing the imbalances that have persisted since independence.

Socio-Economic Divides

High unemployment, inequality, and poverty remain key drivers in Namibia’s political discourse. Opposition parties are expected to tap into these grievances, offering populist platforms that promise economic reforms and policies to address inequality. SWAPO will need to convince voters it can deliver on economic growth and social justice while maintaining political stability. To address unemployment, inequality, and poverty, Namibian opposition parties often make proposals focusing on the following policy issues:

1. Job Creation: Many opposition parties advocate job creation through support for small businesses, agriculture, and local industries. They often criticize the government for its insufficient efforts to help young people find employment. Proposed solutions include loans or grants to small business owners and training programs to help people develop new skills.
2. Land Reform: Land ownership remains a pressing issue, with most land controlled by a small group of individuals. Opposition parties frequently call for more aggressive redistribution policies to give land to those in need, particularly in rural areas, to promote farming, self-sufficiency, and food security.
3. Tax Reform: Some opposition parties propose tax reforms that target wealthier individuals and large companies, requiring them to pay more taxes. The additional revenue would fund programs to help the poor and unemployed, reducing inequality.
4. Social Welfare Programmes: Expanding social welfare, including pensions, unemployment benefits, and housing support, is another key area. Opposition parties often push for more government investment in affordable housing and healthcare to alleviate poverty and improve living standards.
5. Education and Training: Improving education, especially technical and vocational education is seen as essential to tackling unemployment. Opposition parties believe giving people the necessary skills will improve their job prospects and economic standing.
6. Healthcare: Improving access to affordable, quality healthcare is a common policy alternative. Opposition parties often advocate better healthcare infrastructure, particularly in underserved rural areas, to ensure equitable health services for all Namibians.
7. Housing: Affordable housing is a significant policy focus, with proposals to increase government support for housing projects that target low-income citizens. This includes building more houses and creating programs to help people finance home ownership.
8. Morality and Gender-Based Violence (GBV): Addressing GBV and promoting societal morality have also been highlighted. Opposition parties propose stronger laws and more robust enforcement to combat GBV, as well as education campaigns to raise awareness. Many parties also stress the need to build a society that values respect and human dignity to curb rising violence against women and children.

Together, the opposition parties’ policy proposals represent a holistic approach to development, aiming to dismantle structures of inequality and create a society where everyone has the opportunity to thrive.

Namibians Will Decide

The 2024 elections face several challenges, including voter apathy, logistical issues, and concerns about the impartiality of the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN). Voter apathy is particularly high among youth, who feel disconnected from the political process due to high unemployment and inequality. Additionally, logistical issues will need to be addressed, particularly in remote areas, to ensure voter access and smooth processes.

Namibia’s 2024 elections will be a pivotal moment in the country’s democratic journey.

This year’s elections will return to a paper-based voting system, addressing some of the previous concerns about electronic voting machines without a verifiable paper trail. However, new concerns have arisen regarding the independence of the ECN. In particular, critics have questioned President Nangolo Mbumba’s recent invitation of the ECN to the State House. The Secretary General of SWAPO was also invited to the meeting, but other political stakeholders were excluded, raising fears of undue influence and a lack of impartiality. Ensuring the ECN remains independent and transparent will be crucial for maintaining public trust in elections.

Another concern is political parties’ delay in releasing their manifestos, which has impacted voters’ ability to make informed decisions. With elections fast approaching, the lack of detailed and timely manifestos hampers voters’ ability to critically evaluate party policies and compare platforms. This delay may undermine the democratic process, as voters may not have sufficient time to assess which parties best represent their interests and vision for Namibia’s future.

Namibia’s 2024 elections will be a pivotal moment in the country’s democratic journey. As it navigates its political future, the outcome will shape the direction of governance, economic policy, and social justice in the years to come. The challenges are significant, but so too are the opportunities for positive change. Namibia’s commitment to democracy, coupled with its citizens’ active engagement, will be key to ensuring a successful and peaceful election.

In that sense, the 2024 elections represent a test of Namibia’s democratic institutions and the resilience of its political culture. They will likely be shaped by the legacy of corruption scandals, socio-economic issues, and growing demands for reform and transparency. It remains to be seen which side will secure a mandate for the next phase of the country’s development.