Ireland’s Shotgun Election

Ireland is set to go to the polls after Taoiseach Simon Harris called an early general election for 29 November, despite claiming for months that his coalition government would serve the full term to March 2025. Speculation of an early election was rife over the summer, further buoyed by a slate of setbacks for Ireland’s largest opposition party, Sinn Féin.

The outgoing Irish government included three parties in a governing coalition: Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the Green Party. Since 1926, either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, both of which are centre, centre-right conservative parties, have led every government.

In 2020, Sinn Féin, Ireland’s leading opposition party, had an unexpected surge, returning 37 TDs and receiving the most first-preference votes of any party. Notwithstanding receiving the highest percentage of vote share, Ireland’s long-standing conservative parties refused to enter a coalition with Sinn Féin, who advocate for a left-wing agenda.

Following months of negotiations, the three-party coalition was formed with Ireland’s first rotating Taoiseach, an agreement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil that each of their party leaders would get a turn as Ireland’s de facto Prime Minister. Fianna Fáil’s Michael Martin led first, followed by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar – his second time in-post following 2017-2020. Varadkar resigned as party leader and Taoiseach in April 2024, giving his successor Simon Harris an opportunity to lead the government and build his profile before the election. The Green Party, the smallest coalition partner, received two ministerial posts.

Fine Gael’s Gamble

Timing in politics is critical and Harris has clearly calculated that now is the moment to challenge Sinn Féin. Following the 2020 general election Sinn Féin had momentum, outpolling every other party for most of the past four years, but that changed after the local government elections in June.

Sinn Féin were predicted to make significant gains and whilst it did pick up more seats, the vote share and returns were far lower than polling had suggested. Since June, the party has seen a marked decline in polling numbers and has been marred by party infighting and criticism for internal decisions on controversial issues related to child safety and safeguarding.

The mess that has been Sinn Féin’s PR for the past three months was an irresistible carrot for a conservative government that hopes to be returned. But Harris is also taking a risk — 55 percent of Fine Gael’s sitting TDs have opted not to seek re-election, a staggering drop off. By calling the election on 8 November, Harris has given his new candidates just three weeks to build their profiles and canvass. It could backfire.

This election could deliver the change that Ireland so clearly needs.

The coalition parties ran the government together but are now placing blame on each other for their collective policy failures. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail insist their coalition government made a difference, but new builds have not met demand and market prices are increasing.

According to the 2022 census there are 163,433 vacant properties in Ireland, home ownership is at its lowest level in half a century, Dublin is now the second-most expensive place in Europe to live, and homelessness figures increased to a new record of 14,760 – the ninth consecutive month that the number of people in emergency housing has risen. The figures include 4,561 children in emergency accommodation and fail to account for rough sleepers or the hidden homeless like those couch surfing.

Winds of Change?

Ireland's single transferable vote system empowers smaller parties to run, and there are any number of alternatives to the conservative status quo; the Social Democrats, Labour party, and People-Before-Profit are all offering a progressive substitute, including regarding the issue of housing. Sinn Féin has committed to building 300,000 houses over five years and a complete overhaul of housing policy while both Labour and the Social Democrats are offering a three-year rent freeze and a ban on no-fault evictions.

No party on the Left is running enough candidates to form a government on their own but together a left coalition could be formed; 88 TDs are required to form a government – Sinn Féin are running 70 candidates. A coalition that includes Labour, Social Democrats, People-Before-Profit and any number of the left-leaning independent candidates could radically transform Ireland’s political system.

Conservative parties will once again attempt to ice out left-leaning parties in order to maintain their century-old agenda, but the people of Ireland need a new policy agenda; poverty levels are rising, healthcare waiting lists are getting longer, and Ireland is set to dramatically miss its 2030 climate targets. The status quo is not reaching those most in need.

Ireland has taken several steps over the past decade to shirk its conservative past – from repealing the Eighth Amendment to delivering abortion rights and voting for marriage equality, changing the ideology of the government is a natural next step. The next Irish government will not only have to grasp the nettle of socioeconomic deprivation as well as work to counter the pockets of far-right sentiment growing on the political fringes, but it will have to begin preparations for a vote on reunifying the island of Ireland.

The likelihood of a border poll for a united Ireland has increased exponentially since the UK’s 2016 Brexit vote, and the next Irish government will have to take steps to prepare the population for what that vote will entail. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have long brushed aside pressure to advance the conversation on a united Ireland, while Sinn Féin has said Irish unity would be at the centre of its government. When voters in Ireland head to the polls on 29 November, they won’t just be voting on their own future, but the future of all the people of Ireland, North and South. This election could deliver the change that Ireland so clearly needs.