The “coolest dictator in the world”. That’s what Nayib Bukele called himself in 2023, when critics accused him of bending the constitution in order to run again for president. Bukele did not contest the accusations. He had brought the security situation in El Salvador under control – detaining thousands of members of the criminal gangs Mara Salvatrucha (MS) 13 and Barrio 18 – and knew he had the population behind him. Even internationally, his policies often drew reluctant admiration.
Gerold Schmidt directs the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation’s Mexico City Office.
In fact, Bukele won the unconstitutional election in February 2024 by an overwhelming majority. His popularity remains strong. But his image abroad has begun to crumble. The London business magazine The Economist recently called him “unscrupulous”. The issue at hand was the arrest of Ruth López, a human rights lawyer for the church organization Cristosal, on 18 May this year. The government wants to try López behind closed doors on charges of embezzlement.
However, López is not the regime’s first political prisoner. The Bukele government had already detained activists including the entrepreneur and human rights advocate Fidel Zavala. After his release, Zavala dared to file charges against the Deputy Minister of Public Security and two prison directors alleging corruption and torture in the detention centres. Now he finds himself back in the same Mariona prison whose abuses he denounced, accused of being a member of an illegal organization.
The Fight against Gangs
Anyone who followed Bukele’s early political career would be nonplussed by the current developments. Bukele’s rise began in 2015, when he was elected mayor of the capital San Salvador at the age of just 33. He stood as the candidate of the former left-wing guerrilla movement FMLN, which formed the national government at the time. When they did not select him as their presidential candidate for the 2019 election, he founded his own party, Nuevas Ideas, and presented himself as an opponent of the political establishment. After a social media–based campaign, he achieved a landslide victory.
Once in government, he quickly laid the groundwork to consolidate his grip on power – despite the ban on standing for a second term. He used his parliamentary majority to replace the five most senior supreme court judges and the attorney general during his first term. In any case, he could count on loyalty from the police and military.
Bukele reduced the number of seats in parliament for the following legislative period and redrew the constituencies. His party benefited from this, and now holds 54 of the 60 seats in parliament. The FMLN is no longer even represented in parliament.
Recently, new information has cast doubt on Bukele’s virtuous image.
In March 2022, the gangs MS-13 and Barrio 18 murdered 87 people in a single weekend. The president decreed a state of emergency, which parliament has extended at regular intervals. Bukele exploited the situation for an unprecedented crackdown on the gangs. Police and soldiers systematically combed through poor urban neighbourhoods and rural areas with a strong gang presence. The downsides include restrictions on freedom of assembly and the right to privacy of telecommunications, and the chances of a fair trial are slim. The principles of the rule of law no longer apply.
Depending on the source, around 2 to 2.5 per cent of the population are now in prison. That is a world record. With a population of just over six million, that means well over 100,000 people, almost all of whom are awaiting trial. The government has announced mass trials to be held before anonymous judges, who will impose sentences of between 20 and 40 years. The aforementioned organization Cristosal reports awful conditions in the prisons: extreme overcrowding in collective cells, disease, deprivation of food and medication, lack of adequate sanitation and hygiene. Prisoners are often housed in old, dilapidated prisons. Several hundred have died in unexplained circumstances in recent years. Even the government has now had to admit that thousands of innocent people have been imprisoned.
The Deal with Trump
The CECOT high-security prison, inaugurated in 2023 with a capacity of 40,000, attracted worldwide attention. Prisoners there live under Spartan conditions and draconian security. Bukele regularly parades inmates for the media in martial videos. Jana Flörchinger of medico international writes of a “pedagogy of cruelty”.
During his own election campaign, Donald Trump accused Bukele of sending murderers to the United States. But the Salvadoran president seized his opportunity in personal meetings with Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He offered to take US deportees in return for payment. Soon afterwards the United States began deporting detainees to El Salvador, despite a judicial ban. The first deportations included 238 Venezuelans. Again, most of these people are presumably innocent, some even had work permits and residency documents. But Bukele does not care: a good relationship with Trump is more important. The unlawful deportation of Kilmar Abrego, a Salvadoran citizen, drew particular international attention. After protests he was transferred back to the United States and indicted.
Recently, new information has cast doubt on Bukele’s virtuous image. In early May, the respected digital outlet El Faropublished video interviews with two leaders of the Barrio 18 Revolucionarios gang. Their statements corroborate rumours that have been circulating for years. In one of the videos, gang leader Carlos Cartagena describes contacts with Bukele’s immediate circle since 2014, when Bukele ran for mayor of the capital. According to these accounts, the gangs exerted pressure to secure votes for Bukele. In return, money is said to have flowed. The interviewees also report privileges for imprisoned gang leaders, even help in escaping.
The government responded to these revelations with open threats against El Faro and the independent media. This is nothing new. Arrest warrants have been issued for at least six journalists. The Association of Journalists of El Salvador (APES) has recorded an enormous increase in state intimidation over the past two years; Reporters Without Borders has reached the same conclusion. A number of journalists have left the country and ruled out ever returning to Bukele’s El Salvador.
Campaign against “Foreign Agents”
In June, Bukele set in motion a plan that had been in preparation for some time, pulling the 2021 draft legislation on foreign agents out of the drawer and having it approved by parliament. Like similar laws in Russia and Nicaragua, the new rules make it hard for foreign, often non-profit, donors such as aid organizations and foundations to work with Salvadoran NGOs.
In the future, a tax of 30 percent will be levied on donations to local NGOs. Any “foreign agent” in El Salvador who violates “public order” or endangers “social and political stability” can be fined up to 200,000 US dollars. The registration rules for “agents” based in El Salvador have been tightened and a new registry create. NGOs that fail to comply with this obligation within 90 days must cease their activities. Many foreign organizations will now be wondering whether they can work in El Salvador at all.
Bukele says the law promotes transparency, security, and national sovereignty. He responded mockingly to the EU’s criticism that the law violates International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, and called the EU an “ageing, over-regulated bloc” led by unelected bureaucrats who insist on lecturing the rest of the world.
Since his first term began six years ago, Bukele has gradually expanded his authoritarian control over Salvadoran society.
In practice, the “foreign agents” regulations are a political instrument that the government can wield as it sees fit. In particular, they allow the authorities to hinder the work of undesirable human rights and environmental organizations, which are often dependent on foreign funding.
Environmental activists are among the few who still raise their voices against the government. For example, they have spoken out against Bukele’s plans to massively expand mining. In December 2024, parliament passed a legislation lifting a ban on metal mining. The ban had been agreed in 2017, after more than ten years of debate, in order to avoid contamination of the densely populated country’s numerous water bodies.
No Opposition Force in Sight
Since his first term began six years ago, Bukele has gradually expanded his authoritarian control over Salvadoran society. Domestically, there is no sign of meaningful organized opposition. As long as the president succeeds in keeping the security situation under control, the majority of the population still seems willing to accept human rights violations and poverty.
A 40-month IMF loan of 1.4 billion US dollars and the backing of the Trump administration further bolster the president’s position. A constitutional amendment in December 2024 has already laid the groundwork for another term. But that is not all: Bukele is expanding his operations. His relatives in Costa Rica, are preparing for the February 2026 presidential election by setting up the Avanza party.
This article first appeared in nd.Aktuell in collaboration with the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation. Translated by Hunter Bolin and Meredith Dale for Gegensatz Translation Collective.
