It will strike anyone travelling through Tanzania these days how many green flags of the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (Party of the Revolution, CCM), line the streets. Green T-shirts are visible everywhere at choreographed displays of support for the state party. Buses bearing the image of President Samia Suluhu Hassan transport people to events at the government’s expense, and entire swathes of the country are covered with messages of praise for the party. The campaign for the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for the autumn has been in full swing for weeks, even though the exact date has yet to be announced. Posters from other parties are entirely absent from the streets.
These elections are considered to be particularly significant, since they will determine the future of this young democracy of around 60 million inhabitants, where the one-party system was only abolished in 1992. The scenario is as follows: Tanzania will either develop into an authoritarian regime like its eastern neighbours, Uganda and Rwanda, or the country will manage to turn a corner and consolidate its democracy.
The population’s discontent with the political style of the incumbent president, who is seeking re-election, is being discussed across the country. However, the prospects for fair and transparent, truly democratic elections appear slim.
Overexploitation by Tourism
“Mama Samia”, as she is known, became Tanzania’s first woman president in 2021, unexpectedly assuming office as vice president after the sudden death of John Pombe Magufuli. Now she is seeking election to the post for the first time, though she has several hurdles to clear first.
The president is widely regarded by the population as lacking competence. She has launched hardly any noteworthy initiatives; most projects aimed at developing the country originated under Magufuli. Whereas he was seen — despite his authoritarian bent — as being committed to national interests, Samia appears concerned mainly with holding onto power. She has failed to pursue Magufuli’s efforts to curb corruption and establish oversight mechanisms, allowing bribery to spread unchecked.
Samia’s economic policies rely above all on opening the country to foreign investors with virtually no controls. The interests of local communities are largely ignored, and state-mandated land evictions are commonplace. Attempts to assert the rights of individuals against the powerful state apparatus rarely succeed.
To suppress this popular campaign, Samia is cracking down on Chadema with full force.
Her strategy for stimulating the economy revolves primarily around tourism revenue. Her ambitious goal is to increase the number of visitors to 5.3 million per year, generating 3.9 billion US dollars — roughly 25 percent of gross domestic product. Yet this revenue scarcely finds its way back to the regions visited by tourists, where improved infrastructure is urgently needed. On the contrary, communities are often left on their own when it comes to the consequences of unchecked tourism, such as water shortages and mountains of waste.
Under Samia, the hunting industry is also booming once more. In addition to trophy hunting for the wealthy, this includes the export of live — often protected — animal species. The flow of money from these ventures is highly opaque, as revenues are generated through intransparent procedures for awarding hunting licences and largely remain in the hands of the government.
From Reformer to Autocrat
At the start of her term in office, Samia presented herself politically as a reformer, claiming she wanted to strengthen freedom of speech, the press, and assembly — rights that had been severely restricted under Magufuli. This impressed not only the international community but also parts of the Tanzanian opposition.
However, all this changed when opposition parties put forward proposals for constitutional and electoral reform aimed at reinforcing federalist structures and establishing an independent electoral commission. The president had no interest in seeing her powers limited, just as the CCM, which governs and controls even the smallest municipalities, refused to give up its role as the country’s de facto sole party. As a result, these legislative reforms were not pursued. On the contrary, Samia has sought not to limit her extensive powers and control over the electoral commission, but to preserve them.
Although the CCM projects unity to the outside world, Samia’s position of power within the party is by no means secure. Former Magufuli loyalists are working against her, fuelling internal power struggles behind the scenes. The president publicly criticises dissenters or even punishes them, as illustrated by the recent case of CCM parliamentarian and bishop Gwajima Weighs. He had spoken out about the growing number of opposition figures who have disappeared or been tortured. In response, his church, Glory of Christ Tanzania — with over 2,000 congregations across the country — had its registration revoked and was ordered to cease all activities immediately. This public example of how internal party criticism is dealt with sent an effective message.
The president, however, has not one but two Achilles’ heels. Firstly, women are systematically disadvantaged in Tanzania’s deeply patriarchal society; so-called special seats have even been created to ensure their participation in parliament. Secondly, Samia is the first head of government to come from Zanzibar rather than the mainland, where the majority of the Tanzanian population lives. This makes her vulnerable. To secure majorities in elections, the president thus needs not only control over the electoral commission but also a weakened opposition.
A Divided Opposition
Tanzania’s largest opposition party, Chadema, insists that democratic elections can only take place if reforms are first enacted to the largely opaque — and therefore easily manipulable — electoral system. Under the leadership of its newly elected party chairman, Tundu Lissu, the party is running a “No Reforms, No Elections” campaign that has struck a chord among the population.
To suppress this popular campaign, Samia is cracking down on Chadema with full force. After the party refused in April to sign the code of conduct required for electoral participation — which it criticized as unlawful — it was excluded from the elections. Lissu himself was charged with high treason, an offence that carries the death penalty in Tanzania. The trial has been underway for weeks. Leveraging Lissu’s international renown and the global spotlight this has put on the case, Chadema has thus far succeeded in using the trial as a stage from which to promote its political demands. Should the international community eventually lose interest, however, that opportunity is likely to disappear.
The first few days of the trial revealed how volatile the situation is. When lawyers from Kenya and Uganda arrived to provide support, several were expelled. The regime was particularly brutal toward two foreign trial supporters, who were detained, tortured, and later abandoned near the border.
The government is now coming down hard on Chadema. It revoked the party’s registration, dismissed its entire leadership, froze its accounts, and banned any form of support. Prominent Chadema figures told me in conversations that they had repeatedly been offered large sums of money to step down from their political posts. At the same time, they are deeply concerned for their safety and live in constant fear of being poisoned; when staying in hotels, they always keep their drinks locked in the safe.
Although the election campaign has not yet properly begun, the CCM is already fighting with heavy-handed tactics.
The country’s second major opposition party, the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT), is pursuing a different strategy. While it too is calling for electoral reform, its main emphasis is on constitutional reform. It agreed to the code of conduct and is contesting the election with its own presidential candidate, party leader Dorothy Semu. Meanwhile, some Chadema MPs have now joined ACT in order to retain their seats.
The party takes relatively progressive positions. Its manifesto calls for free education and healthcare, poverty-focused budget restructuring, and greater local economic development. If the alliance is denied the right to register its own candidates, it plans to mobilize against CCM candidates, as voters in Tanzania also have the option to vote “no”. Despite all anticipated irregularities, this is seen as an important act of democratic participation that could deal a serious blow to the ruling party.
Thus far, the party says it has largely been spared major attacks by the government. However, appearances on public broadcasters either do not take place or are cancelled at short notice, meaning the opposition party is almost entirely reliant on its own channels to reach the public.
Tanzania at a Crossroads
The CCM itself is touting a massive influx of new members in an effort to demonstrate its support among the population. However, people I spoke with told me that streets and regions regarded as particularly supportive of the opposition are being cut off from essential infrastructure, such as water and electricity. New connections are only installed once communities can prove they have recruited the desired number of new CCM members.
Although the election campaign has not yet properly begun, the CCM is already fighting with heavy-handed tactics. The population is intimidated by state repression. On the islands of Zanzibar, which are seen as anti-government, resistance is expressed even more openly. On the mainland, however — unlike in neighbouring Kenya — there does not appear to be any broad mobilization against the government’s policies, despite widespread dissatisfaction.
Still, the authoritarian regime is not yet fully consolidated. This makes international attention all the more important, as sufficient external pressure could de-escalate tensions and serve as a protective shield for the opposition. One can only hope that the international community will indeed act accordingly.
This article first appeared in nd.Aktuell in collaboration with the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation. Translated by Hunter Bolin and Joel Scott for Gegensatz Translation Collective.