Delhi’s police chief, Satish Golchha, is concerned. Not long after the violent Gen Z-led demonstrations that rocked Nepal in September and forced the government to resign, he instructed three of his units to draw up contingency plans in the event that similar “large, youth-driven, leaderless protests” break out in the Indian capital.
Britta Petersen directs the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation’s South Asia Office in New Delhi.
“We are currently conducting a detailed analysis of the patterns of the protests in Nepal, where social media played a central role in mobilizing participants”, explained a senior police officer. “The commissioner has requested a detailed emergency plan focusing on preventive intelligence-gathering, crowd-control strategies, and mechanisms to counter online misinformation.” Authorities are also reviewing whether they have sufficient inventory of “non-lethal weapons”.
The apprehension is understandable. Over the last three years, in three of India’s neighbours — Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal — governments have been toppled by mass protests. In Pakistan and Myanmar, the traditionally powerful militaries have tightened their grip on power: in Islamabad, former prime minister Imran Khan, popular among the youth, has been imprisoned since 2023, while in Myanmar the army staged a coup in 2021 against the democratically elected government of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
In short, India is surrounded by instability. Most observers agree that the protests “are rooted in weak political institutions and widespread mismanagement”, according to Shashi Tharoor, a member of the opposition Congress Party in the Indian parliament.
But that is only half of the truth. It is hardly conceivable that the government in New Delhi could be removed from power within the space of a few days. It is far too popular in key sectors of society, including the middle classes, the industrial sector, the police, the judiciary, and the Gen forces. Yet India is also facing many of the same challenges that are currently driving Generation Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) onto the barricades across the globe. South Asia is home to the world’s largest population of youths: numbering over 700 million, they make up 30 percent of the population. They are now demanding a future with real opportunities and prospects.
“We Want Fair Opportunities”
With economic growth averaging 6.5 percent, India is currently the world’s fastest-growing major economy. At the same time, as with most of its Asian neighbours, it suffers from high rates of youth unemployment. This problem has been further exacerbated by the trade wars instigated by US President Donald Trump. The tightening of restrictions around H-1B work visas for the United States, 70 percent of which are used by Indians, is placing additional strain on the domestic labour market.
According to a 2025 study by the investment bank Morgan Stanley titled “Asia’s Youth Job Crisis”, youth unemployment in Asia averages 16 percent — significantly higher than in the United States (10.5 percent) and Europe (6.3 percent). This reaches its peak in South Asia, with 17.6 percent of young people unemployed in India and up to 20.8 percent in Nepal and Sri Lanka. Oftentimes, underemployment crops up as an additional problem, a fact noted by Chetan Ahya, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. People are considered to be underemployed when they are unable to work full-time due to a lack of jobs, or because no jobs match their qualifications.
On top of that, the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) is putting existing jobs at risk, while simultaneously reducing prospects for well-paid new ones. It is no surprise that university graduates who are working long-term as Uber drivers or Amazon delivery drivers are largely dissatisfied with their life prospects. In Nepal, it was no coincidence that the trigger for the protests that brought down the government was an internet ban imposed by the authorities.
Those who work in the gig economy rely on a functioning internet connection to get gigs. Meanwhile, social media platforms such as Instagram continuously flood mobile phones with a steady stream of images showcasing the luxurious lifestyles of the upper class. “No more nepo babies – we demand fair opportunities” was thus one of the chants that could be heard at protests in Kathmandu.
Yet such opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce. Even the World Bank has released a new report claiming that those at risk of poverty now outnumber the middle classes in most Asian countries. The reason being that growth in the region has shifted from manufacturing to the low-wage service sector. This shift, the report warns, threatens to “erode” all the progress that has lifted “millions out of poverty” over the past decade. “Countries are not taking full advantage of the benefits of shifting workforces from less productive into more productive industries and companies”, the World Bank cautiously concludes.
While companies primarily use the opportunities offered by the gig economy to cut costs, the global shift to protectionism initiated by Donald Trump has reduced the prospects of stimulating economic growth through increasing exports. Chetan Ahya argues that, for the problem of underemployment to be offset, it would require India’s economy to grow by 12 percent annually, a level the country has never achieved since its independence.
The Situation in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal
However, India has a diversified economy and its stable growth has generated sufficient resources to keep people on board through social measures and stimulate domestic demand. This is an option which most neighbouring countries simply do not have. In Bangladesh, for example, textile exports — on which the country’s economy is heavily dependent — nosedived during the Covid crisis. Instead of enacting countermeasures, the prime minister at the time, Sheikh Hasina, took the opportunity to use draconian measures to crack down on the opposition — that is, until she was overthrown by the student movement in 2024.
In Sri Lanka, too, the ruling class led by the Rajapaksa family was engaged in violent attempts to suppress the opposition up until 2022, when the consequences of mismanagement became so pronounced for the people that the mass movement known as Aragalaya rose up and ultimately toppled the old regime. Of India’s immediate neighbours, Sri Lanka is the only country that has had a new, democratically elected government since 2024. While the left-wing president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, maintains a firm grip on power, the country is still facing tremendous challenges.
Whether Bangladesh will see a rise in Islamist forces, or whether Nepal will witness a resurgence of the monarchy in place of the existing left-wing parties, will also depend on how much international support democratic forces are able to mobilize.
The global economy is undergoing profound structural change. Sri Lanka’s economy continues to rely heavily on agriculture, textiles, and tourism. Civil society has high expectations of the new government. Much will depend on Dissanayake’s ability to involve the democratic forces that brought him to power and to break the pattern of authoritarian rule which took hold during the long years of civil war.
Transitional governments are currently in power in Bangladesh and Nepal, both of which have announced elections for the coming year. Building long-term stability in the region will also depend on whether the new governments manage to win legitimacy among the younger generation. To achieve this, they will need to future-proof their economies by investing in education, healthcare, and innovation, while also effectively regulating the digital economy. At the same time, trade unions and civil society are stepping up pressure to introduce social safety nets and ensure fair wages in the gig economy.
Lack of Foresight from the German Government
It would be in the interests of governments to work with these forces. German and European supply chain legislation offers opportunities to strengthen pro-democracy groups in South Asia. So far, however, foresight has been lacking in this regard. These laws need to be expanded rather than weakened, and increasing — rather than cutting — development cooperation would give Europe a chance to deepen its partnerships in the region.
Such steps would also help mitigate the risks posed by the rivalry between regional powers China and India. Large-scale projects financed by China, such as the airport in Pokhara, Nepal, or the port in Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo, have not only increased the debt burden on governments but also intensified geopolitical tensions, without bringing the countries any concrete economic benefit.
Pakistan is a telling example of how political elites consolidate their power through sophisticated yet shifting alliances with regional and global powers — while the population gains little in return. The country has been mired in a severe economic crisis for years, marked by high inflation and mounting debt. In the wake of the imprisonment of former prime minister Imran Khan — who had embodied the hopes of Gen Z — the powerful military has once again taken control.
In the spring, terrorist groups acting as proxies for the army launched a new military confrontation with India, partly to divert attention from these domestic problems. The resulting wave of nationalism strengthened army chief Asif Munir, who even won over Donald Trump by nominating the US president for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Whether Bangladesh — which belonged to Pakistan until its independence in 1971 — will see a rise in Islamist forces, or whether Nepal will witness a resurgence of the monarchy in place of the existing left-wing parties, will also depend on how much international support democratic forces are able to mobilize.
Translated by Hunter Bolin and Rowan Coupland for Gegensatz Translation Collective.