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Bangladesh is approaching a decisive moment in its democratic transition: the general election scheduled for 12 February. It will be the first since the Awami League-led government, which ruled for 15 years and was widely accused of systemic corruption, authoritarian practices, and the violent suppression of dissent, was overthrown by the mass uprising of 2024 commonly referred to as the “July Revolution”.
F.M. Arafat is a Research Manager at the Centre for Alternatives, an independent think tank in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
The uprising began as a student-led protest movement demanding the abolition of the public-sector job quota system. It quickly gathered momentum and evolved into a nationwide civic revolt as millions of citizens mobilized against extensive state violence, resulting in deaths, enforced disappearances, and mass arrests. The movement ultimately led to the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India on 4 August 2024. A report presented by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in February 2025 established that there were approximately 1,400 deaths during the protests, most of the victims being students and civilians.
An interim government, largely composed of technocrats and led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, assumed office with a mandate to restore democratic institutions, reform the constitution, judiciary, and electoral system, and organize free and fair elections after years of authoritarian rule. More than 18 months later and with the elections less than two weeks away, Bangladesh stands at a political crossroads. Questions have already arisen regarding the transparency of candidate selection by major parties, while the limited representation of women on the candidate lists of the two principal alliances marks a regressive trend. At the same time, concerns are growing about the rise of fringe extremist forces and the increasing appeal of intolerant narratives that threaten the secular foundations on which the country was established in 1971.
Chartering the Transition
The July Revolution marked a turning point in Bangladesh’s history, as student-led protests emerged as a force for nationwide change. It was also the first time the country witnessed mass mobilization topple an authoritarian government.
Following Hasina’s fall, the interim government led by Professor Muhammad Yunus sought to rebuild public trust by restoring democratic norms and ensuring accountability. To this end, it established 11 reform commissions tasked with proposing changes in key areas, including the constitution, electoral system, police administration, judiciary, anti-corruption mechanisms, public administration, local government, health, women’s affairs, labour rights, and the media.
Consisting of 28 points, the July Charter proposes far-reaching reforms designed to curb executive power and strengthen institutional checks and balances.
The recommendations of these commissions were later consolidated under a National Consensus Commission, mandated to facilitate dialogue among political parties and other stakeholders, bridge ideological and generational divides, and develop agreement on reforms to the judicial, administrative, constitutional, policing, and electoral systems. After a 72-day consultation process, the commission produced what became known as the July Charter.
Consisting of 28 points, the July Charter proposes far-reaching reforms designed to curb executive power and strengthen institutional checks and balances. Key recommendations include the introduction of a bicameral legislature, the re-establishment of a caretaker government system, term limits for the prime minister, and amendments to Article 70 of the constitution to allow Members of Parliament to vote freely except on confidence motions and budgetary matters.
Additional proposals address judicial independence, the creation of a national police commission, and greater transparency in the appointment of heads of constitutional bodies such as the Election Commission, Anti-Corruption Commission, Comptroller and Auditor General, Public Service Commission, and Ombudsman. The charter also calls for strengthening the powers of the presidency and increasing women’s representation in parliament.
The charter was signed on 17 October 2025 by the National Consensus Commission and representatives of 24 political parties. Subsequently, the July National Charter (Constitution Amendment) Implementation Order 2025 was issued in November. This ordinance provides for a referendum on the July Charter to be held simultaneously with the general election on 12 February. If approved, the newly elected parliament will serve as a constituent assembly for its first 180 days to enact the agreed constitutional changes.
Political Fragmentation and Persistent Underrepresentation
Bangladesh’s post-uprising political landscape has grown highly fragmented. Several reform-oriented parties have entered the electoral race, while alliances continue to form and dissolve. The Awami League remains banned from political activity, and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been charged in absentia with crimes against humanity related to the violent suppression of student protests. Her exclusion, along with that of her party, has drawn criticism from the secular Left for undermining democratic inclusiveness and weakening representation. Despite the ban, many Awami League figures remain politically active in exile, particularly in India, where they are reportedly seeking to engineer a political return.
The vacuum left by the Awami League has been filled by the resurgence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, both of which were marginalized under the previous regime. The BNP has emerged as the frontrunner under the leadership of its newly elected chair, Tarique Rahman, and many analysts expect it to form the next government despite its history of polarization and governance failures. The party also gained sympathy following the death of its long-time leader and former prime minister, Begum Khaleda Zia, who had endured imprisonment and house arrest under the Hasina government.
Women’s underrepresentation remains one of the most striking features of the forthcoming election.
Jamaat-e-Islami, long regarded as a minor political force and historically opposed to Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971, has now unexpectedly become a potential kingmaker. Its growing influence is driven by the absence of the Awami League, effective grassroots mobilization, and a series of electoral successes by its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, including a landslide victory in the Dhaka University elections in late 2025. These developments point to a significant shift among the youth towards Islamist currents.
The political energy of the July Revolution has also found expression in new formations, most notably the National Citizen Party (NCP). Advocating the creation of a “Second Republic”, the NCP calls for a complete overhaul of the existing constitution, which it views as structurally authoritarian. However, limited grassroots organization, weak polling performance, allegations of corruption, and the inexperience of its leadership have constrained its national appeal.
In an attempt to consolidate anti-Awami League votes, the NCP entered into an unexpected alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami. This move has proved deeply controversial, prompting internal dissent and the departure of several senior figures, including prominent female leaders who opposed cooperation with an Islamist party.
Women’s underrepresentation remains one of the most striking features of the forthcoming election. Of the 1,981 candidates contesting, only 71 are women. Nearly one third of them have familial ties to established political figures. Meanwhile, around 30 parties have not nominated a single woman candidate, including Jamaat-e-Islami. The NCP has nominated only two, despite the visibility of female activists during the July Revolution. Overall, two thirds of parliamentary constituencies have no female candidates at all, underscoring the structural barriers facing women without political dynastic connections.
A Referendum on the Future
The military’s role in the democratic transition remains highly contested. During the crisis, the armed forces played a significant part in the removal of Sheikh Hasina and the establishment of the interim government. Since then, they have generally been described as acting in a calculating manner: intervening where needed to prevent a collapse of order while avoiding an overt seizure of power. This approach has been cautiously welcomed by sections of the public and the international community, although it has also fuelled speculation and misinformation.
As protests escalated and civilian authority weakened, the military assumed a greater role in internal security, supporting law enforcement during the height of the uprising. It also presented itself domestically and internationally as a neutral guardian of national stability. Nevertheless, its continuing institutional influence in governance and security raises unresolved questions about the balance between civilian oversight and military authority.
More than a routine transfer of power, these votes will test Bangladesh’s ability to move from personality-driven politics towards a rules-based democratic system grounded in accountability and rights.
Indeed, compared with the intensely repressive environment of previous years, civic space has expanded in some respects. Thousands of detained protesters have been released, and the interim government has cooperated with international human rights investigations. Public debate has become more open, with renewed discussion of constitutional reform, electoral integrity, police accountability, and transitional justice. For many journalists and activists, these changes represent a meaningful departure from the climate of fear that previously prevailed.
Nevertheless, serious concerns persist. Human rights organizations have reported an increase in attacks on independent media and civil society actors, particularly during politically sensitive periods. Arson attacks and assaults on the offices of major newspapers such as Prothom Alo and The Daily Star point to a deteriorating environment for independent journalism. While responsibility for these attacks often remains unclear, the prevailing sense of impunity and inconsistent state protection continue to undermine freedom of expression.
Against this backdrop, the approaching general election constitutes a defining moment for Bangladesh’s political future. The July Revolution ended 15 years of authoritarian rule and demonstrated the transformative power of mass civic mobilization. Yet the collapse of an authoritarian order has not automatically produced a stable democracy. The country must now rebuild institutions and public trust amid a volatile and fragmented political environment.
The general election, together with the referendum on the July Charter, will have far-reaching implications. More than a routine transfer of power, these votes will test Bangladesh’s ability to move from personality-driven politics towards a rules-based democratic system grounded in accountability and rights. Whether the reforms envisioned in the July Charter are implemented or diluted through political compromise and elite realignment will shape the country’s democratic trajectory for years to come.
