Comment , | 03/27/2026 : Throwing lives into the woodchipper

As of late March 2026 the United States has moved thousands of additional troops into the Middle East, intensifying speculation that Trump is about to escalate from an air campaign to a possible ground invasion of Iran., Currently the US has deployed approximately 2,500 to 5,000 additional marines, bringing the total number of US service members in the region to over 50,000. The US military has mobilized parts of the 82nd Airborne Division, which is an active-duty U.S. Army airborne infantry division that specializes in joint forcible entry operations.

One possible target is Kharg Island, where Iran processes 90 percent of its oil exports. As early as 1988, Trump has said he could “do a number” on Kharg Island in an interview; clearly the idea of invading Iran has been on his mind for decades. Kharg Island is tiny, only about one third the size of Manhattan. The island lies almost 500 km from the Strait of Hormuz, placing it deep inside the Persian Gulf. Military experts have warned that if Trump were to order the seizure of the island, Iran could easily massacre or capture the US troops deployed there. Furthermore, destroying the oil infrastructure on Kharg would only drive global oil prices higher and would not force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Alternatively, Trump may order US troops to seize the Iranian side of the Strait in order to try to destroy Iran’s capacity to threaten shipping. However, the Strait is not the only place Iranian drones and missiles are launched from, meaning the US would soon need to try to take more Iranian territory, which would require a massive amount of troops and resources.

Unpopular on the home front

Mobilizing for a possible ground invasion means Trump has crossed a significant red line, since his popularity has in part derived from his alleged opposition to “stupid” wars, and especially US occupations.

Trump’s willingness to criticize the Iraq War in the 2016 presidential campaign distinguished him from other Republican candidates, helping him clinch the nomination and eventually win the White House. His “no new wars” campaign resonated deeply with Americans frustrated with the expense and futility of the ten year occupation of Iraq and the (at that time) open-ended occupation of Afghanistan. In his first term, Trump negotiated a deal to withdraw from Afghanistan, which Biden went on to carry out in 2021. Americans abandoning their Afghan partners as the Taliban swiftly reestablished control was a fiasco on par with the chaotic withdrawal from Vietnam, a debacle from which Biden’s popularity never recovered, strengthening Americans’ view that foreign occupations are pointless. 

Trump appears to have been under the impression that the military action he launched against Iran on February 28 would also be over quickly. Instead, he is now trapped in a cycle of escalation that is proving difficult to escape.

During Trump’s 2024 campaign, he again emphasized that he would avoid unnecessary wars, which struck a chord with many Americans who wished to put America First, or at least to prioritize domestic priorities – including preventing immigration – rather than wasting billions on foreign occupations.

Aerial Strikes over Boots on the Ground

When Trump did use military force, he appeared determined to keep the US commitment light,  a strategy seen in the assassination of Quds Force Commander, General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. Although the strike likely violated international law, the America First crowd – and many veterans of the Iraq War – applauded the murder of a military leader who had supported the insurgency in Iraq that killed and maimed thousands of US troops. Trump appeared perfectly willing to use the US military to go after those he saw as America’s enemies – just not with boots on the ground. 

Other such instances followed: In June 2025, Trump attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, but resisted Israeli pressure to engage in a broader military campaign against Iran. When Trump ordered the kidnapping of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, he committed further violations of international law – in addition to prior the murder of civilians on small boats in the Caribbean – yet he seems to have felt he had achieved a significant victory. 

Each time, Trump used the US military to successfully accomplish an objective without getting dragged into a wider conflict. Critics had warned against attacking Iran or Venezuela, and Trump likely felt that he solved “problems” that had bedeviled previous administrations, proving that he was more bold and more clever than previous US presidents. To be clear, neither Qassem Soleimani, nor Iran’s civilian nuclear program, nor the presidency of Maduro actually threatened the United States, which is why military action was illegal.

Unfortunately, he appears to have been under the impression that the military action he launched against Iran on February 28 would also be over quickly. Instead, he is now trapped in a cycle of escalation that is proving difficult to escape.

Israel’s war?

Trump’s entrapment is due, in part, to the dogged efforts of Prime Minister Netanyahu, as well as a network of individuals and think tanks inside Washington that have been pushing for the United States to launch a war on Iran for decades. One such DC think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), for example, was originally established to “improve the image of Israel in North America.” The White House copied FDD’s justification for attacking Iran almost word for word in their official statement. FDD strenuously opposed President Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal – the only mechanism that successfully halted Iran’s enrichment of uranium – and has long advocated that the US undertake regime change in Iran. Yet under the prevailing mood of the past decade, their campaign to push the US to take out the Islamic Republic appeared to be swimming against the tide of American opinion – until Trump, having tasted success in Iran and Venezuela, finally agreed to work with Israel in a full air campaign. 

Into the quagmire

Yet, no air campaign has ever successfully achieved regime change on its own. If Trump had been paying attention, he would have recognized this, as well as a few other key facts.

Iran is almost four times the size of Iraq, and is significantly more mountainous; its mountainous terrain is similar to that of Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s population in 2001 was approximately 22 million, while Iraq’s in 2003 was approximately 25 million; Iran’s is more than 90 million, almost four times greater. If Trump decided to undertake a ground invasion, even a limited one, he would likely soon be forced to provide more and more troops in order to protect the first wave to be deployed.

Many Americans are furious that Trump launched yet another war of choice, the primary effect of which is to intensify the affordability crisis while doing nothing to make Americans safer and committing war crimes and atrocities against the civilian population of Iran.

Trump and his administration appear to be under the impression that America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq failed because the US was trying to “nation build,” or establish a government that would be more friendly to US interests. While that is part of why those wars proved futile, failure is also baked into the nature of foreign occupation: local populations knows that eventually the foreign occupier will give up and leave. 

Almost two thirds of Americans believe Trump will order a ground war in Iran, and only 7 percent support such a move, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. A majority of Americans believe that Israel benefits from the war more than the United States, according to a poll conducted by Data for Progress. When Joe Kent resigned from his position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center in protest against the war, he argued that the US is fighting a war on Israel’s behalf. Many Americans are furious that Trump launched yet another war of choice, the primary effect of which is to intensify the affordability crisis while doing nothing to make Americans safer, while committing war crimes and atrocities against the civilian population of Iran. If Trump launches a ground invasion, the United States is likely to be bogged down indefinitely, as he throws more and more resources and lives into the woodchipper of war.