Publication : South Eastern Europe and the EU Enlargement Process

When the Ukraine war broke out, the European Commission announced an accelerated enlargement of the European Union (EU) and granted Ukraine, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and the Western Balkan states Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) accession candidate status. The planned second eastward enlargement of the EU is a surprising move because other Western Balkan states have been stuck in candidate status since 2005 without any relevant progress being discernible. For their part, the political and social left have found it difficult to articulate a forward-looking, internationalist critique of the EU. No socialist vision has been set out that goes beyond the romanticization of the 1970s social democratic nation state reproduced in left-wing circles and elsewhere. For a socialist European strategy, it will be essential to involve political allies from the region in the elaboration of a shared European policy. A perspective of this kind can, in turn, only be formulated by a united European left.

The position of Die Linke and the majority of the social left on the EU has evolved over the last few years into one of critical affirmation. In this spirit, the Die Linke manifesto for the 2024 European elections stated, “As democratic socialists, we therefore oppose both the advocates of a radical freemarket EU and the nationalist concept of a ‘Europe of fatherlands’.”14 The logical implication of this professed commitment to internationalism is that the populations of the Western Balkan states should be supported in joining the EU.

Pros and Cons of EU Accession

The political balance of power in the new Member States would, above all, strengthen the conservative and authoritarian-right block within the European Parliament, at least during the initial phase. This raises the threat of a scenario in which anti-integration forces would be bolstered further by enlargement. The socialist left would, however, be confronted with the problem of the turn to the authoritarian right regardless of any such new set of circumstances, so this would be a relatively weak argument against these countries’ accession. The situation is similar with regard to the possible socioeconomic consequences. The candidate countries reformed and upended their economies and welfare systems in accordance with Brussels’s neoliberal requirements some time ago. Large parts of their labour legislation have also been amended and liberalized. However — as previously when the first round of eastward enlargement went ahead — allowing the Western Balkan states into the EU could increase the pressure on the other Member States to speed up the dismantling of their own welfare systems. At the same time, this tendency towards neoliberal authoritarianism is already on the political offensive, irrespective of any possible new members.

A more-substantial argument against these countries’ accession would, from our perspective, be its potential to accelerate the depopulation of South Eastern Europe. Although most people in the Western Balkans can now leave their countries relatively easily, and targeted efforts are being made to recruit skilled workers in order to plug workforce gaps, for example in the ailing German health system, the prospect of general freedom of movement could exacerbate this highly problematic development.15 Even so, there are also a number of reasons that speak in favour of the Western Balkan states joining the EU. Although, under the existing association agreements, they are already aligning their economic, social, and migration policies with EU requirements to a great extent, they have no opportunities to directly influence decision-making processes within the European Union. Were they to join the EU, they would be able to assert their interests directly in negotiations.

Accession would also enable the candidate countries to benefit from the EU’s various funding pots. In the Western Balkan states, infrastructure policy initiatives are mainly confined to the economically prosperous urban conurbations. Resources from the EU Cohesion Fund could make it possible for peripheral regions to be developed within certain limits.

However, the possibility of EU membership for the Western Balkan states depends not only on the situations of the various countries, but also on the condition of the EU. The disparate levels of economic development found in the Western Balkan states and the EU mean targeted redistributive programmes will be required and should already be launched during the accession process. Given the disparities in development, programmes like the EU Growth Plan, which provides for investments worth 6 billion euros over the period from 2024 to 2027, are no more than drops in the ocean, especially as the allocation of the funds is tied to a neoliberal reform agenda dictated by the European Commission.

Against this background, we anticipate the following scenario for the decade to come: The Western Balkan states are unlikely to fulfil the Copenhagen criteria. There is just as little likelihood of the EU acting purposefully to reduce disparities in development by implementing redistributive policies. In consequence, the prospect of accession will increasingly become an instrument of geopolitical power used to tie the Western Balkan states to the EU over the long term — although without any concrete timetable. In order to make a contribution to the development of a socialist perspective for Europe — and therefore for the Western Balkans as well — it will be indispensable to involve relevant actors from South Eastern Europe who are open to cooperation in the debates conducted by the European left, and to integrate them into existing organizational contexts.  

Recommended Actions

• Involvement of relevant socialist actors from the region who are open to cooperation in Europe-wide left structures
• Promotion of cooperation between socialist and left-ecological actors in the Western Balkans  
• Creation of a structured, internal training programme within Die Linke targeted at fostering expertise in international policy issues
• Reinforcement of institutional structures concerned with international politics in order to secure channels of communication and ensure continuing dialogue with international political actors on the left
• Championing of the Western Balkans’ shared concerns by the socialist and left-ecological parties and MEPs sitting in the European Parliament, and establishment of sustainable working structures focussed on the Western 
  Balkans and the enlargement perspective  
• Development of a political and economic 
  perspective for South Eastern Europe

Authors:

• Felix Jaitner is a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Reconstitution (IGRec) in Berlin. He works on questions of political ecology and extractivism, political economy, and peace and conflict research.
• Krunoslav Stojaković is senior advisor for Western Europe, Southeastern Europe, and Central Europe in the Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung Europe Unit