A Crucial Battle for Greece and for Europe

Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis rose to power in July 2019, succeeding the SYRIZA government of the turbulent period of 2015–2019. Since its electoral victory, the New Democracy (ND) government proved to be a version of authoritarian neoliberalism a la greca.

In the economic sphere, the government completed the neoliberal assault on all the remaining — after a decade of austerity — social rights and pubic goods and/or it backtracked on practically all pro-labour measures previously achieved by the SYRIZA government amidst hard negotiations with the troika of the country’s creditors. In the social and political sphere, the attack on civil liberties was intense. From the new legal framework that practically banned almost all social protests to the establishment of a special police force responsible for the Universities, the list is long.

At the same time — and this explains the term “a la greca”- the right-wing government proved to be one of the most corrupt the country has ever known. Accountability and transparency regarding the use of public resources seem to be unknown words for the ruling party, while small and big scandals regarding its links with vested interests and the economic activities of some of the ruling-party MPs are on the daily agenda.

The pandemic proved to be a catalyst facilitating the aforementioned political choices. The state of emergency was used to justify practically everything: from a series of direct awarding of public contracts without open tenders to the imposition of irrational curfews or other restrictive measures. Furthermore, the fact that measures of social distancing prevented direct social interaction for a long period of time increased the influence of the mass media — at a time where Greece had dropped to the one-handed-and-eighth position in the World Press Freedom Index (down from position 70 in 2021), ranking last among EU member states.

Recent Key Developments

Schematically, one could say that three successive developments of the last several months have deprived Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his government of his three basic claims, the three basic advantages that he claimed to possess.

First, the price hike and skyrocketing inflation that affected not only the weakest households but also a large percentage of the middle strata, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), etc., traumatized the social alliance that ND had formed around it with the promise of supporting the “middle class”. Greece is one of the EU countries with the worst performance regarding the fight against the impact of inflation. Furthermore, the fact that Greek households and SMEs entered this new period of economic crisis from a considerably lower starting point as a result of the previous austerity period threatened to turn the economic crisis into a social and humanitarian one.

Secondly, the recent wiretapping scandal significantly damaged the profile of Mitsotakis as a moderate, liberal European leader and damaged his relationship with the more centrist parts of his electorate. In addition, the fact that one of the victims was the leader of PASOK made a potential coalition government between ND and PASOK harder.

The Greek Left’s fight is a fight for Greece and a fight for Europe.

Thirdly, the recent train accident in Tempi, in combination with the high toll of deaths during the pandemic despite one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe, also cast considerable doubt on the image of Mitsotakis as a “good manager”, thus depriving him of his last asset.

This accident had some aspects that are of high political relevance. It was not unpredictable. The railway trade unions and the opposition parties had repeatedly warned about serious deficits in safety measures. The railway administration and the government were aware of the risks they chose to ignore, and thus their responsibility for the accident was fully established in public opinion from the very first minute.

It revealed the importance of high-quality public services. Railway transport privatization was one of the prerequisites of the bailout programmes, whereas infrastructure remained state-owned. The fact that the causes of the accident laid on the infrastructure side opened up a discussion with deep ideological and political roots. The Right claimed that transport and other important services should be totally privatized since the state has proven to be incompetent, whereas large parts of the Left proposed reclaiming public ownership of important goods and services, with SYRIZA highlighting the importance of a reform of the public administration in order to become more efficient.

The disaster affected almost everyone in Greece. The fact that the majority of the victims were young students returning to their studies after a long weekend, many after visiting their parents, led practically everyone to identify with them. The main slogan of the protests, which were massive and mostly attended by young Greeks, was “call me when (if) you arrive”, a common phrase between family and friends in Greece.

Electoral Perspectives

This is the atmosphere in which Greek national parliamentary elections will be held on 21 May. Right now, the polls suggest a close battle between ND and SYRIZA, however the fact that a proportional electoral system will apply for the first time will make it necessary for the parties to look for alliances. Should an agreement fail to be reached, second elections will be held on 2 July under a majoritarian electoral system.

Whereas the popularity of and support for ND and Kyriakos Mitsotakis have dropped constantly and significantly, a clear alternative electoral choice is yet to emerge. SYRIZA is electorally stable and slowly rising, but has not fully profited from the ND losses, at least so far. Its governing past and catch-all strategy, alongside the fact that competition on the left of the political spectrum is harder as more left-wing choices are on offer to voters, seem to make it difficult for SYRIZA to build a stable electoral base.

Moreover, the Greek party system has not fully recovered from the 2012 electoral earthquake, as the process of voter realignment seems to be ongoing. Party identification levels are rather low, which especially for SYRIZA voters can be also explained by the fact that its electorate is anyway rather “young” since it was formed after 2012, and almost one out of four voters will decide who to vote for during the last month of the campaign.

These facts make it clear that the outcome of the upcoming elections is wide open. The race will definitely be a close one, but the winner — and more specifically, who will be able to form a government after the first or even a second possible election — remains unclear.

Social and political discontent is high, but for the moment subdued and without a clear representation. Whether, how, against whom, and by whom this discontent will be electorally expressed is the big question of the upcoming elections. Odds are that voters will ultimately choose to participate in this electoral process in order to express their discontent against the government. Most probably, SYRIZA will be favoured in this choice as the most viable government alternative, thus having a real chance of winning, but the far right and ranks of non-voters may also see significant gains. The participation or abstention of the youth, the protagonists of the recent social protest who usually vote more for the Left, will also be a determining factor.

Greece and Europe at a Crossroads

The important thing to highlight for now is that the outcome of this electoral process is crucial not only for Greece but for Europe as well.

Greek society favours political change and is demanding justice on all levels of economic, social, and political life. At the same time, the continuation of Greece’s slide towards deeper authoritarianism should the current government’s mandate be renewed is something that cannot be disregarded by European societies, and more specifically by the European Left and progressive forces — at least not in a period when Europe is taking an increasingly right-wing turn in one country after the other. The recent visit of Alexis Tsipras to Berlin and his meetings with the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the German Left suggest that many progressive political forces are aware of that.

The Greek Left’s fight is a fight for Greece and a fight for Europe.